Sato Yasuto, Kojimahara Noriko, Yamaguchi Naohito
Department of Public Health, School of Medicine, Tokyo Women's Medical University, Tokyo, Japan.
Bioelectromagnetics. 2019 Apr;40(3):143-149. doi: 10.1002/bem.22176. Epub 2019 Mar 15.
Over 20 years have passed since the initial spread of mobile phones in Japan. Epidemiological studies of mobile phone use are currently being conducted around the world, but scientific evidence is inconclusive. The present study aimed to simulate the incidence of malignant brain tumors in cohorts that began using mobile phones when they first became popular in Japan. Mobile phone ownership data were collected through an Internet-based questionnaire survey of subjects born between 1960 and 1989. The proportion of mobile phone ownership between 1990 and 2012 was calculated by birth cohort (1960s, 1970s, and 1980s). Subsequently, using the ownership proportion, the incidence of malignant brain tumors was calculated under simulated risk conditions. When the relative risk was set to 1.4 for 1,640 h or more of cumulative mobile phone use and the mean daily call duration was 15 min, the incidence of malignant brain tumors in 2020 was 5.48 per 100,000 population for the 1960s birth cohort, 3.16 for the 1970s birth cohort, and 2.29 for the 1980s birth cohort. Under the modeled scenarios, an increase in the incidence of malignant brain tumors was shown to be observed around 2020. © 2019 Bioelectromagnetics Society.
自手机最初在日本普及以来，已经过去了20多年。目前世界各地都在进行关于手机使用的流行病学研究，但科学证据尚无定论。本研究旨在模拟在日本手机首次普及就开始使用手机的队列中恶性脑肿瘤的发病率。通过对1960年至1989年出生的受试者进行基于互联网的问卷调查来收集手机拥有数据。按出生队列（20世纪60年代、70年代和80年代）计算1990年至2012年期间的手机拥有比例。随后，利用该拥有比例，在模拟风险条件下计算恶性脑肿瘤的发病率。当累计手机使用时长达到1640小时及以上且平均每日通话时长为15分钟时，相对风险设定为1.4，2020年20世纪60年代出生队列中恶性脑肿瘤的发病率为每10万人5.48例，70年代出生队列为3.16例，80年代出生队列为2.29例。在模拟场景下，预计2020年左右恶性脑肿瘤发病率会有所上升。© 2019生物电磁学会。
