Max-Planck-Institut für Gesellschaftsforschung, Köln, Germany; Center for Science and Technology Studies - Science and Evaluation Studies, Leiden University, Leiden, The Netherlands.
Soc Stud Sci. 2019 Apr;49(2):180-207. doi: 10.1177/0306312719837364. Epub 2019 Mar 18.
According to economists from the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, the introduction of performance pay for primary and secondary school teachers would lead to an increase in Dutch GDP of one-and-a-half percent in 2070. A new epistemic practice of microeconomic forecasting undergirded this attempt to make the distant future part of the political present. Taking the construction of the economic growth potential of performance pay as a starting point, this article analyzes how microeconomic forecasting emerged in one of the world's oldest forecasting bureaus - and to what consequences. First, it highlights the institutional preconditions for this 'turn to micro' in an institution that had pioneered in the field of macroeconomic forecasting. Second, the article analyzes microeconomic forecasting as a distinct epistemic practice that brings different forms of economic expertise together to make the future of educational reforms commensurable. Finally, it analyzes the political consequences of this new epistemic practice in the sense that it not only enables but simultaneously limits the provision of policy-relevant evidence. Beyond the specificities of the case, the article contributes to the sociological study of economic policy devices against the background of a predominant market bias in the STS research on economics.
根据荷兰经济政策分析局的经济学家的研究，如果在中小学教师中实行绩效工资制，到 2070 年，荷兰的 GDP 将增长 1.5%。这种新的微观经济预测认知实践为将遥远的未来纳入政治现实奠定了基础。本文以构建绩效工资的经济增长潜力为出发点，分析微观经济预测是如何在世界上最古老的预测机构之一出现的，以及产生了哪些后果。首先，它强调了在这个机构中，宏观经济预测领域的先驱机构中出现这种“转向微观”的制度前提。其次，本文将微观经济预测分析为一种独特的认知实践，它将不同形式的经济专业知识结合在一起，使教育改革的未来具有可衡量性。最后，本文分析了这种新的认知实践的政治后果，即它不仅使提供与政策相关的证据成为可能，而且同时也限制了这种证据的提供。除了案例的特殊性之外，本文还以经济学中 STS 研究中占主导地位的市场偏见为背景，为经济政策手段的社会学研究做出了贡献。
