Kong Jingjing, Simonovic Slobodan P
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Western University, London, ON, Canada.
Risk Anal. 2019 Aug;39(8):1843-1863. doi: 10.1111/risa.13305. Epub 2019 Mar 20.
Multiple hazard resilience is of significant practical value because most regions of the world are subject to multiple natural and technological hazards. An analysis and assessment approach for multiple hazard spatiotemporal resilience of interdependent infrastructure systems is developed using network theory and a numerical analysis. First, we define multiple hazard resilience and present a quantitative probabilistic metric based on the expansion of a single hazard deterministic resilience model. Second, we define a multiple hazard relationship analysis model with a focus on the impact of hazards on an infrastructure. Subsequently, a relationship matrix is constructed with temporal and spatial dimensions. Further, a general method for the evaluation of direct impacts on an individual infrastructure under multiple hazards is proposed. Third, we present an analysis of indirect multiple hazard impacts on interdependent infrastructures and a joint restoration model of an infrastructure system. Finally, a simplified two-layer interdependent infrastructure network is used as a case study for illustrating the proposed methodology. The results show that temporal and spatial relationships of multiple hazards significantly influence system resilience. Moreover, the interdependence among infrastructures further magnifies the impact on resilience value. The main contribution of the article is a new multiple hazard resilience evaluation approach that is capable of integrating the impacts of multiple hazard interactions, interdependence of network components (layers), and restoration strategy.
多重灾害恢复力具有重要的实用价值，因为世界上大多数地区都面临多种自然和技术灾害。利用网络理论和数值分析方法，开发了一种相互依存基础设施系统多重灾害时空恢复力的分析与评估方法。首先，我们定义了多重灾害恢复力，并基于单一灾害确定性恢复力模型的扩展提出了一种定量概率度量。其次，我们定义了一个多重灾害关系分析模型，重点关注灾害对基础设施的影响。随后，构建了一个具有时间和空间维度的关系矩阵。此外，还提出了一种评估多重灾害下对单个基础设施直接影响的通用方法。第三，我们分析了多重灾害对相互依存基础设施的间接影响以及基础设施系统的联合恢复模型。最后，以一个简化的两层相互依存基础设施网络为例，对所提出的方法进行说明。结果表明，多重灾害的时空关系对系统恢复力有显著影响。此外，基础设施之间的相互依存关系进一步放大了对恢复力值的影响。本文的主要贡献是一种新的多重灾害恢复力评估方法，该方法能够整合多重灾害相互作用、网络组件（层）的相互依存关系以及恢复策略的影响。
