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平均受教育年限对经济增长的预测能力正在减弱吗?通过结构方程模型的另一种衡量方法。

Are average years of education losing predictive power for economic growth? An alternative measure through structural equations modeling.

机构信息

Facultad de Economía/Universidad Santo Tomás, Bogotá, Colombia.

Facultad de Psicología/Fundación Universitaria Konrad Lorenz, Bogotá, Colombia.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2019 Mar 21;14(3):e0213651. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0213651. eCollection 2019.

DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0213651
PMID:30897113
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6428257/
Abstract

The accumulation of knowledge required to produce economic value is a process that often relates to nations economic growth. Some decades ago many authors, in the absence of other available indicators, used to rely on certain measures of human capital such as years of schooling, enrollment rates, or literacy. In this paper, we show that the predictive power of years of education as a proxy for human capital started to dwindle in 1990 when the schooling of nations began to be homogenized. We developed a structural equation model that estimates a metric of human capital that is less sensitive than average years of education and remains as a significant predictor of economic growth when tested with both cross-section data and panel data.

摘要

知识的积累是产生经济价值的过程,这一过程通常与国家的经济增长有关。几十年前,许多作者在缺乏其他可用指标的情况下,曾经依赖于人力资本的某些衡量标准,如受教育年限、入学率或识字率。在本文中,我们表明,作为人力资本代理的受教育年限的预测能力在 1990 年开始减弱,当时各国的教育开始趋同。我们开发了一个结构方程模型,该模型估计的人力资本指标比平均受教育年限的敏感度低,并且在使用横截面数据和面板数据进行测试时仍然是经济增长的重要预测指标。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fbde/6428257/54ac94e0f86f/pone.0213651.g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fbde/6428257/7cbfec62a8cf/pone.0213651.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fbde/6428257/9d937247b25a/pone.0213651.g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fbde/6428257/533df5146220/pone.0213651.g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fbde/6428257/54ac94e0f86f/pone.0213651.g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fbde/6428257/7cbfec62a8cf/pone.0213651.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fbde/6428257/9d937247b25a/pone.0213651.g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fbde/6428257/533df5146220/pone.0213651.g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fbde/6428257/54ac94e0f86f/pone.0213651.g004.jpg

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本文引用的文献

1
Social determinants of health and the International Monetary Fund.健康的社会决定因素与国际货币基金组织
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 Jun 20;114(25):6421-6423. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1706988114. Epub 2017 Jun 9.
2
Productivity in physical and chemical science predicts the future economic growth of developing countries better than other popular indices.物理和化学科学的生产力比其他流行指标更好地预测发展中国家的未来经济增长。
PLoS One. 2013 Jun 12;8(6):e66239. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0066239. Print 2013.
3
Latent variables in psychology and the social sciences.
心理学和社会科学中的潜在变量。
Annu Rev Psychol. 2002;53:605-34. doi: 10.1146/annurev.psych.53.100901.135239.