Yang Shi Min, Guo Xiang, Wang Ming Tian
College of Agriculture, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China.
Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration/Sichuan Province Key Laboratory of Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin, Chengdu 610072, China.
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2019 Jan 20;30(1):198-208. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201901.021.
The quantitative evaluation and comparison of drought risks at each development stage and the whole growth period between transplanting rice and direct-sowing rice in Sichuan Basin can provide a scientific basis for the transformation and promotion of rice production technology in various regions. Based on the theory of natural disaster risk and the formation mechanism of rice drought risk, we evaluated and compared the drought risk in the whole growth period and the four development stages (sowing-jointing, jointing-booting, booting-full heading, full heading-maturity) between transplanting rice and direct-sowing rice, analyzed the vulnerability of disaster bodies, the sensitivity of disaster environment and the capacity of drought disaster prevention and reduction of rice drought in Sichuan Basin, using meteorological data in Sichuan Basin from 1961 to 2017, the observation data of rise production, agricultural statistics and the basic geographical information. The drought risk assessment model for Sichuan Basin was established, which was used to classify the results of evaluation. The results indicated that the drought risk of rice in Sichuan Basin was higher. The medium-risk areas in terms of the two planting methods were both the most widely distributed areas. The spatial-distribution characteristics of drought risk for the two kinds of rice were generally the same which was high in the middle and east of the basin, low in the southwest of the basin, and decreased from east to west and from the center to the surroundings. For the two planting methods, the greatest difference of rice drought risk appeared at the sowing-jointing stage. The drought risk of the direct-sowing rice at the sowing-jointing stage was significantly lower, and the distribution range was smaller than that of the transplanting rice. The distribution of the slight-low drought risk area of the direct-sowing rice was wider, but the high-risk area was slightly smaller.
对四川盆地移栽稻和直播稻各发育阶段及全生育期干旱风险进行定量评估与比较，可为各地区水稻生产技术的转型与推广提供科学依据。基于自然灾害风险理论和水稻干旱风险形成机制，利用1961—2017年四川盆地气象数据、水稻生产观测数据、农业统计数据及基础地理信息，对移栽稻和直播稻全生育期及播种—拔节、拔节—孕穗、孕穗—抽穗、抽穗—成熟四个发育阶段的干旱风险进行评估与比较，分析四川盆地水稻干旱承灾体脆弱性、孕灾环境敏感性及抗旱减灾能力。建立四川盆地干旱风险评估模型并对评估结果进行等级划分。结果表明，四川盆地水稻干旱风险较高。两种种植方式下中风险区均为分布最广的区域。两种水稻干旱风险空间分布特征总体一致，盆地中部和东部高，西南部低，自东向西、自中心向周边降低。两种种植方式下，水稻干旱风险差异最大出现在播种—拔节期，直播稻播种—拔节期干旱风险显著低于移栽稻，分布范围小于移栽稻，直播稻轻度—低风险区分布范围较宽，但高风险区略小。
