Department of Psychology, Harvard University, William James Hall, 33 Kirkland Street, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.
University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada and B.C. Children's Hospital, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Behav Cogn Psychother. 2019 Sep;47(5):573-584. doi: 10.1017/S1352465819000134. Epub 2019 Mar 27.
Research indicates that people suffering from obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD) possess several cognitive biases, including a tendency to over-estimate threat and avoid risk. Studies have suggested that people with OCD not only over-estimate the severity of negative events, but also under-estimate their ability to cope with such occurrences. What is less clear is if they also miscalculate the extent to which they will be emotionally impacted by a given experience.
The aim of the current study was twofold. First, we examined if people with OCD are especially poor at predicting their emotional responses to future events (i.e. affective forecasting). Second, we analysed the relationship between affective forecasting accuracy and risk assessment across a broad domain of behaviours.
Forty-one OCD, 42 non-anxious, and 40 socially anxious subjects completed an affective forecasting task and a self-report measure of risk-taking.
Findings revealed that affective forecasting accuracy did not differ among the groups. In addition, there was little evidence that affective forecasting errors are related to how people assess risk in a variety of situations.
The results of our study suggest that affective forecasting is unlikely to contribute to the phenomenology of OCD or social anxiety disorder. However, that people over-estimate the hedonic impact of negative events might have interesting implications for the treatment of OCD and other disorders treated with exposure therapy.
研究表明，强迫症（OCD）患者存在多种认知偏差，包括高估威胁和回避风险的倾向。研究表明，OCD 患者不仅高估负面事件的严重程度，而且低估自己应对此类事件的能力。目前尚不清楚他们是否也错误估计了特定经历对他们情绪的影响程度。
本研究的目的有两个。首先，我们考察了 OCD 患者是否特别不擅长预测他们对未来事件的情绪反应（即情感预测）。其次，我们分析了情感预测准确性与广泛行为领域的风险评估之间的关系。
41 名 OCD、42 名非焦虑和 40 名社交焦虑患者完成了情感预测任务和风险行为的自我报告评估。
研究结果表明，各组之间的情感预测准确性没有差异。此外，几乎没有证据表明情感预测错误与人们在各种情况下评估风险的方式有关。
我们的研究结果表明，情感预测不太可能导致 OCD 或社交焦虑障碍的现象学。然而，人们高估负面事件的享乐影响可能对 OCD 和其他采用暴露疗法治疗的障碍的治疗具有有趣的意义。
