Evidence that a major subpopulation of fall armyworm found in the Western Hemisphere is rare or absent in Africa, which may limit the range of crops at risk of infestation.

The introduction and establishment of fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) in Africa presents a major threat to agriculture in that continent and potentially to the entire Eastern Hemisphere. The species is subdivided into two subpopulations called the R-strain and C-strain that differ in their distribution on different plant hosts. This means that the scope of the economic risk posed by invasive fall armyworm is influenced by whether one or both strains are present. Multiple studies have found mitochondrial markers diagnostic of the two strains throughout Africa but there is substantial disagreement with a nuclear strain marker that makes conclusions about strain composition uncertain. In this study the issue of whether both strains are present in Africa was tested by an assay that can detect strain-biased mating behaviors. Western Hemisphere fall armyworm consistently showed evidence of strain-specific assortative mating in the field that was not found in surveys from multiple locations in Africa. The absence of strain mating biases and the disagreements between the strain diagnostic genetic markers indicates that the R-strain is rare (<1% of the population) or absent in Africa. Instead, it appears that the African fall armyworm populations are dominated by two groups, the C-strain and the descendants of interstrain hybrids. These results suggest that plant hosts associated with the R-strain may not be at high risk of fall armyworm infestation in Africa.