Jury Martin Wolfgang, Herrera Sixto, Gutiérrez José Manuel, Barriopedro David
1Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Brandhofgasse 5, 8010 Graz, Austria.
2Meteorology Group, Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Sciences, Universidad de Cantabria, 39005 Santander, Spain.
Clim Dyn. 2019;52(5):3291-3306. doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4335-8. Epub 2018 Jul 30.
While Regional Climate Models (RCMs) have been shown to yield improved simulations compared to General Circulation Model (GCM), their representation of large-scale phenomena like atmospheric blocking has been hardly addressed. Here, we evaluate the ability of RCMs to simulate blocking situations present in their reanalysis driving data and analyse the associated impacts on anomalies and biases of European 2-m air temperature (TAS) and precipitation rate (PR). Five RCM runs stem from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble while three RCMs are WRF models with different nudging realizations, all of them driven by ERA-Interim for the period 1981-2010. The detected blocking systems are allocated to three sectors of the Euro-Atlantic region, allowing for a characterization of distinctive blocking-related TAS and PR anomalies. Our results indicate some misrepresentation of atmospheric blocking over the EURO-CORDEX domain, as compared to the driving reanalysis. Most of the RCMs showed fewer blocks than the driving data, while the blocking misdetection was negligible for RCMs strongly conditioned to the driving data. A higher resolution of the RCMs did not improve the representation of atmospheric blocking. However, all RCMs are able to reproduce the basic anomaly structure of TAS and PR connected to blocking. Moreover, the associated anomalies do not change substantially after correcting for the misrepresentation of blocking in RCMs. The overall model bias is mainly determined by pattern biases in the representations of surface parameters during non-blocking situations. Biases in blocking detections tend to have a secondary influence in the overall bias due to compensatory effects of missed blockings and non-blockings. However, they can lead to measurable effects in the presence of a strong blocking underestimation.
虽然区域气候模型(RCMs)已被证明与全球环流模型(GCM)相比能产生更好的模拟结果,但其对诸如大气阻塞等大尺度现象的表现却很少得到探讨。在此,我们评估区域气候模型模拟其再分析驱动数据中存在的阻塞情况的能力,并分析对欧洲2米气温(TAS)和降水率(PR)的异常及偏差的相关影响。五个区域气候模型运行结果来自欧洲气候变化评估计划(EURO-CORDEX)集合,而三个区域气候模型是具有不同nudging实现方式的WRF模型,它们在1981 - 2010年期间均由欧洲中期天气预报中心(ERA-Interim)驱动。检测到的阻塞系统被分配到欧洲-大西洋区域的三个扇区,以便对与阻塞相关的独特气温和降水率异常进行特征描述。我们的结果表明,与驱动再分析相比,欧洲气候变化评估计划区域内的大气阻塞存在一些误报情况。大多数区域气候模型显示的阻塞情况比驱动数据少,而对于那些强烈依赖驱动数据的区域气候模型,阻塞误报情况可忽略不计。区域气候模型更高的分辨率并未改善对大气阻塞的表现。然而,所有区域气候模型都能够再现与阻塞相关的气温和降水率的基本异常结构。此外,在校正区域气候模型中阻塞的误报情况后,相关异常并未发生实质性变化。总体模型偏差主要由非阻塞情况下地表参数表示中的模式偏差决定。阻塞检测中的偏差由于漏报阻塞和非阻塞的补偿效应,往往对总体偏差产生次要影响。然而,在存在强烈阻塞低估的情况下,它们可能导致可测量的影响。