University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
University of North Texas, Denton, TX, USA.
Int J Biometeorol. 2019 Aug;63(8):1025-1038. doi: 10.1007/s00484-019-01715-z. Epub 2019 Apr 9.
This study examines effects of weather, temporal factors, and gasoline price on outdoor recreation participation by using a time series model. We obtained more than 5 years of daily outdoor recreation visitation data by using infrared mechanical counters on a section of the Florida National Scenic Trail (FNST). Results showed that days with daily maximum temperatures of 16-22 °C brought the largest number of visitors, which suggests this is the most comfortable range of daily maximum temperatures to recreate on the FNST. Daily maximum temperatures below 6 °C and above 31 °C and heat index values above 38 °C brought significantly lower visitor numbers, suggesting these values are temperature thresholds for this region in a recreation context. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model showed significant negative effects of temperature, relative humidity, cold snaps, and gasoline price and a positive effect of weekends and public holidays on recreational visitations to this trail. Days with heavy rainfall (> 2.54 cm) or a high heat index (≥ 35 °C) were likely to negatively affect recreation participation not only on the same day, but also on the next normal weather day. These findings imply that managers of facilities that need staffing and other resources should expect to receive fewer visitors on days following adverse weather conditions, even if that day has normal weather conditions.
本研究使用时间序列模型考察了天气、时间因素和汽油价格对户外休闲活动参与的影响。我们使用佛罗里达州国家风景小径（FNST）一段的红外机械计数器获得了超过 5 年的每日户外休闲访问数据。结果表明，日最高温度为 16-22°C 的天数带来了最多的游客，这表明这是 FNST 上最舒适的日最高温度范围。日最高温度低于 6°C 和高于 31°C 以及热指数值高于 38°C 的天数带来的游客数量明显减少，这表明这些值是该地区在休闲背景下的温度阈值。季节自回归综合移动平均模型显示，温度、相对湿度、寒潮、汽油价格对休闲访问量有显著的负向影响，周末和公共假日对该小径的休闲访问量有正向影响。降雨量超过 2.54 厘米（> 2.54 厘米）或高温指数（≥ 35°C）的日子不仅可能对当天的休闲活动产生负面影响，而且可能对下一个正常天气日的休闲活动产生负面影响。这些发现意味着需要人员和其他资源的设施管理人员应该预计，即使当天天气正常，在恶劣天气条件后的日子里，游客人数也会减少。
