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美国的热浪:定义、模式与趋势。

Heat waves in the United States: definitions, patterns and trends.

作者信息

Smith Tiffany T, Zaitchik Benjamin F, Gohlke Julia M

机构信息

Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, USA.

出版信息

Clim Change. 2013 Jun;118(3-4):811-825. doi: 10.1007/s10584-012-0659-2.

Abstract

High temperatures and heat waves are related but not synonymous concepts. Heat waves, generally understood to be acute periods of extreme warmth, are relevant to a wide range of stakeholders because of the impacts that these events have on human health and activities and on natural environments. Perhaps because of the diversity of communities engaged in heat wave monitoring and research, there is no single, standard definition of a heat wave. Experts differ in which threshold values (absolute versus relative), duration and ancillary variables to incorporate into heat wave definitions. While there is value in this diversity of perspectives, the lack of a unified index can cause confusion when discussing patterns, trends, and impacts. Here, we use data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System to examine patterns and trends in 15 previously published heat wave indices for the period 1979-2011 across the Continental United States. Over this period the Southeast region saw the highest number of heat wave days for the majority of indices considered. Positive trends (increases in number of heat wave days per year) were greatest in the Southeast and Great Plains regions, where more than 12 % of the land area experienced significant increases in the number of heat wave days per year for the majority of heat wave indices. Significant negative trends were relatively rare, but were found in portions of the Southwest, Northwest, and Great Plains.

摘要

高温和热浪是相关但并非同义的概念。热浪通常被理解为极端温暖的急性期,由于这些事件对人类健康、活动以及自然环境产生影响,因此与广泛的利益相关者相关。或许是因为参与热浪监测和研究的群体具有多样性,目前尚无关于热浪的单一标准定义。专家们在纳入热浪定义的阈值(绝对阈值与相对阈值)、持续时间以及辅助变量方面存在分歧。虽然这种观点的多样性有其价值,但缺乏统一的指标在讨论模式、趋势和影响时可能会导致混淆。在此,我们使用来自北美陆地数据同化系统的数据,来研究1979年至2011年期间美国大陆15个先前发表的热浪指数的模式和趋势。在此期间,对于大多数所考虑的指数而言,东南部地区的热浪天数最多。正趋势(每年热浪天数增加)在东南部和大平原地区最为显著,在这些地区,超过12%的土地面积在大多数热浪指数下每年的热浪天数都有显著增加。显著的负趋势相对较少,但在西南部、西北部和大平原的部分地区有所发现。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a3e8/3711804/ed423804c051/nihms429066f1.jpg

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