Abedi Siavosh, Janbabaei Ghasem, Afshari Mahdi, Moosazadeh Mahmood, Rashidi Alashti Masoumeh, Hedayatizadeh-Omran Akbar, Alizadeh-Navaei Reza, Abedini Ehsan
Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran.
Gastrointestinal Cancer Research Center, Faculty of Medicine, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran.
J Prev Med Public Health. 2019 Mar;52(2):140-144. doi: 10.3961/jpmph.17.090. Epub 2019 Feb 18.
Investigating the survival of patients with cancer is vitally necessary for controlling the disease and for assessing treatment methods. This study aimed to compare various statistical models of survival and to determine the survival rate and its related factors among patients suffering from lung cancer.
In this retrospective cohort, the cumulative survival rate, median survival time, and factors associated with the survival of lung cancer patients were estimated using Cox, Weibull, exponential, and Gompertz regression models. Kaplan-Meier tables and the log-rank test were also used to analyze the survival of patients in different subgroups.
Of 102 patients with lung cancer, 74.5% were male. During the follow-up period, 80.4% died. The incidence rate of death among patients was estimated as 3.9 (95% confidence [CI], 3.1 to 4.8) per 100 person-months. The 5-year survival rate for all patients, males, females, patients with non-small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC), and patients with small cell lung carcinoma (SCLC) was 17%, 13%, 29%, 21%, and 0%, respectively. The median survival time for all patients, males, females, those with NSCLC, and those with SCLC was 12.7 months, 12.0 months, 16.0 months, 16.0 months, and 6.0 months, respectively. Multivariate analyses indicated that the hazard ratios (95% CIs) for male sex, age, and SCLC were 0.56 (0.33 to 0.93), 1.03 (1.01 to 1.05), and 2.91 (1.71 to 4.95), respectively.
Our results showed that the exponential model was the most precise. This model identified age, sex, and type of cancer as factors that predicted survival in patients with lung cancer.
研究癌症患者的生存率对于控制疾病和评估治疗方法至关重要。本研究旨在比较各种生存统计模型，并确定肺癌患者的生存率及其相关因素。
在这项回顾性队列研究中，使用Cox、Weibull、指数和Gompertz回归模型估计肺癌患者的累积生存率、中位生存时间以及与生存相关的因素。还使用Kaplan-Meier表和对数秩检验分析不同亚组患者的生存情况。
102例肺癌患者中，74.5%为男性。在随访期间，80.4%的患者死亡。患者的死亡发生率估计为每100人月3.9（95%置信区间[CI]，3.1至4.8）。所有患者、男性、女性、非小细胞肺癌（NSCLC）患者和小细胞肺癌（SCLC）患者的5年生存率分别为17%、13%、29%、21%和0%。所有患者、男性、女性、NSCLC患者和SCLC患者的中位生存时间分别为12.7个月、12.0个月、16.0个月、16.0个月和6.0个月。多变量分析表明，男性、年龄和SCLC的风险比（95%CI）分别为0.56（0.33至0.93）、1.03（1.01至1.05）和2.91（1.71至4.95）。
我们的结果表明指数模型最为精确。该模型确定年龄、性别和癌症类型为预测肺癌患者生存的因素。
