Smith Matthew R, DeFries Ruth, Chhatre Ashwini, Ghosh-Jerath Suparna, Myers Samuel S
1 Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
2 Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Food Nutr Bull. 2019 Mar;40(1):26-40. doi: 10.1177/0379572118825176.
India has made important strides in reducing nutritional deficiencies over the past several decades. However, for micronutrients such as zinc, previous studies have suggested a worsening situation, contrary to most other dietary indicators. Adding to this burden, higher carbon dioxide (CO) levels of 550 ppm, projected to potentially occur within decades, could reduce the zinc content of many staple crops.
To assess the historical prevalence of inadequate zinc intake, as well as to estimate the future prevalence attributable to rising CO.
Seven household food consumption surveys between 1983 and 2012 were used to calculate total dietary zinc, phytate, and absorbable zinc intakes and to assess the prevalence of historic inadequacy in zinc intake. The added nutritional effect of elevated CO on zinc intake is then modeled.
Prevalence of inadequate absorbable zinc intake has increased from 17.1% (15.3%-19.0%) in 1983 to 24.6% (22.3%-27.1%) in 2011-12, corresponding to an additional 82 million people consuming inadequate zinc than would have otherwise if 1983 rates had persisted. These increases in inadequacy have been driven by a relatively constant zinc intake being increasingly insufficient to meet a 5% growth in zinc requirements due to the aging of the population. Reaching 550 ppm CO by 2050 could potentially increase the prevalence of inadequate zinc intake by another 3.9 percentage points (2.1-5.8), corresponding to 65 million additional people having inadequate zinc intake.
The persistently worsening trend for zinc-opposite most other measures of human nutrition-shows that it may pose an ongoing risk unless addressed.
在过去几十年里，印度在减少营养缺乏方面取得了重要进展。然而，对于锌等微量营养素，此前的研究表明情况在恶化，这与大多数其他饮食指标相反。更糟糕的是，预计几十年内可能出现的550 ppm的高二氧化碳（CO）水平，可能会降低许多主食作物的锌含量。
评估锌摄入量不足的历史患病率，并估计因二氧化碳浓度上升导致的未来患病率。
利用1983年至2012年期间的七次家庭食物消费调查，计算膳食锌、植酸和可吸收锌的总摄入量，并评估锌摄入历史不足的患病率。然后对二氧化碳浓度升高对锌摄入量的额外营养影响进行建模。
可吸收锌摄入量不足的患病率从1983年的17.1%（15.3%-19.0%）增至2011-2012年的24.6%（22.3%-27.1%），这意味着如果维持1983年的比率，会有额外8200万人锌摄入不足。这种不足情况的增加是由于人口老龄化导致锌需求增长5%，而锌摄入量相对稳定，越来越不足以满足需求。到2050年二氧化碳浓度达到550 ppm可能会使锌摄入不足的患病率再增加3.9个百分点（2.1-5.8），即另有6500万人锌摄入不足。
与大多数其他人类营养指标相反，锌的情况持续恶化，这表明除非加以解决，否则可能会持续构成风险。
