Use of age-stage structural models to seek optimal Wolbachia-infected male mosquito releases for mosquito-borne disease control.

Due to the lack of vaccines and effective clinical cures, current methods to control mosquito-borne viral diseases such as dengue and Zika are primarily targeting to eradicate the major mosquito vectors. However, traditional means, including larval source reduction and applications of insecticides etc, are not sufficient to keep vector population density below the epidemic risk threshold. An innovative and operational strategy is to release Wolbachia-infected male mosquitoes into wild areas to sterilize wild female mosquitoes by cytoplasmic incompatibility. To help design optimal release strategies before large scale and expensive operations, we started with an age-stage discrete model to track daily abundances of wild female mosquitoes, which fitted the field data collected by Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention from 2015 to 2017 with an average Pearson correlation coefficient 0.7283. Then, we modeled the Wolbachia interference by introducing the proportional releases of Wolbachia-infected males, and eight optimal release policies which guarantee more than 95% suppression efficiency were sought. Finally, we assessed the robustness of the optimality of the eight release policies by allowing the migration of females or the contamination of Wolbachia-infected females by two further extended mathematical models.