School of Medicine, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States.
Division of Pediatric Rheumatology, Department of Pediatrics, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States.
Front Immunol. 2019 Apr 2;10:638. doi: 10.3389/fimmu.2019.00638. eCollection 2019.
Humans have an innate desire to observe and subsequently dissect an event into component pieces in an effort to better characterize the event. We then examine these pieces individually and in combinations using this information to determine the outcome of future similar events and the likelihood of their recurrence. Practically, this attempt to foretell an occurrence and predict its outcomes is evident in multiple disciplines ranging from meteorology to sociologic studies. In this manuscript we share the historical and present-day tools to predict course and outcome in juvenile idiopathic inflammatory myopathy including clinical features, testing, and biomarkers. Further we discuss considerations for building more complex predictive models of outcome especially in diseases such as juvenile idiopathic inflammatory myopathy where patients numbers are low. Many of the barriers to developing risk prediction models for juvenile idiopathic inflammatory myopathy outcomes have improved with many remaining challenges being addressed.
人类有一种天生的欲望，即观察事物，并将其随后分解为各个组成部分，以更好地描述该事件。然后，我们使用这些信息单独检查这些部分，并将它们组合起来，以确定未来类似事件的结果以及它们再次发生的可能性。实际上，这种试图预测事件并预测其结果的尝试在从气象学到社会学研究等多个学科中都很明显。在本文中，我们分享了预测幼年特发性关节炎相关肌炎病程和结局的历史和现代工具，包括临床特征、检测和生物标志物。此外，我们还讨论了构建更复杂的预后预测模型的注意事项，特别是在幼年特发性关节炎相关肌炎等患者人数较少的疾病中。许多开发幼年特发性关节炎相关肌炎结局风险预测模型的障碍已经得到改善，许多仍然存在的挑战也正在得到解决。
