Abigail Wexner Research Institute at Nationwide Children's Hospital, Columbus, OH; The Ohio State University College of Medicine, Columbus, OH.
Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA.
J Am Acad Child Adolesc Psychiatry. 2020 Feb;59(2):236-243. doi: 10.1016/j.jaac.2019.04.020. Epub 2019 Apr 28.
To estimate the association between the release of the Netflix series 13 Reasons Why and suicide rates in the United States.
Using segmented quasi-Poisson regression and Holt-Winters forecasting models, we assessed monthly rates of suicide among individuals aged 10 to 64 years grouped into 3 age categories (10-17, 18-29, and 30-64 years) between January 1, 2013, and December 31, 2017, before and after the release of 13 Reasons Why on March 31, 2017. We also assessed the impact of the show's release on a control outcome, homicide deaths.
After accounting for seasonal effects and an underlying increasing trend in monthly suicide rates, the overall suicide rate among 10- to 17-year-olds increased significantly in the month immediately following the release of 13 Reasons Why (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.29; 95% CI, 1.09-1.53); Holt-Winters forecasting revealed elevated observed suicide rates in the month after release and in two subsequent months, relative to corresponding forecasted rates. Contrary to expectations, these associations were restricted to boys. Among 18- to 29-year-olds and 30- to 64-year-olds, we found no significant change in level or trend of suicide after the show's release, both overall and by sex. The show's release had no apparent impact in the control analyses of homicide deaths within any age group.
The release of 13 Reasons Why was associated with a significant increase in monthly suicide rates among US youth aged 10 to 17 years. Caution regarding the exposure of children and adolescents to the series is warranted.
评估网飞(Netflix)系列剧《十三个原因》(13 Reasons Why)播出与美国自杀率之间的关联。
采用分段拟泊松回归和霍尔特-温特斯预测模型,我们评估了 2013 年 1 月 1 日至 2017 年 12 月 31 日期间,年龄在 10 至 64 岁之间的 3 个年龄组(10-17 岁、18-29 岁和 30-64 岁)中,个人每月自杀率,分为该剧播出前(2017 年 3 月 31 日之前)和播出后(2017 年 3 月 31 日之后)两个阶段。我们还评估了该剧播出对对照结局(凶杀死亡)的影响。
在考虑季节性影响和月度自杀率的潜在上升趋势后,10-17 岁人群在《十三个原因》播出后的当月自杀率显著上升(发病率比 [IRR],1.29;95%置信区间 [CI],1.09-1.53);霍尔特-温特斯预测显示,与相应的预测率相比,在发布后的月份以及随后的两个月中,观察到的自杀率升高。与预期相反,这些关联仅限于男孩。在 18-29 岁和 30-64 岁人群中,我们发现该剧播出后自杀率的水平或趋势没有明显变化,无论整体情况还是按性别划分都是如此。在任何年龄组中,该剧播出对凶杀死亡的对照分析均未显示出明显影响。
《十三个原因》的播出与美国 10 至 17 岁青少年的月度自杀率显著增加有关。有必要谨慎对待儿童和青少年接触该剧的问题。