Department of Psychiatry, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Can J Psychiatry. 2019 Nov;64(11):798-804. doi: 10.1177/0706743719870507. Epub 2019 Aug 21.
"13 Reasons Why," a Netflix series, included a controversial depiction of suicide that has raised fears about possible contagion. Studies of youth suicide in the United States found an increase on the order of 10% following release of the show, but this has not been replicated in other countries. This study aims to begin to address that gap by examining the relationship between the show's release and youth suicide in Canada's most populous province.
Suicides in young people (under the age of 30) in the province of Ontario following the show's release on March 31, 2017, were the outcome of interest. Time-series analyses were performed using data from January 2013 to March 2017 to predict expected deaths from April to December 2017 with a simple seasonal model (stationary = 0.732, Ljung-Box = 15.1, = 16, = 0.52, Bayesian information criterion = 3.09) providing the best fit/used for the primary analysis.
Modeling predicted 224 suicides; however, 264 were observed corresponding to 40 more deaths or an 18% increase. In the primary analysis, monthly suicides exceeded the 95% confidence limit for 3 of the 9 months (May, July, and October).
The statistical strength of the findings here is limited by small numbers; however, the results are in line with what has been observed in the United States and what would be expected if contagion were occurring. Further research in other locations is needed to increase confidence that the associations found here are causal.
网飞系列剧《13 个原因》包含了对自杀的有争议的描述，这引发了对可能的自杀传染的担忧。美国对青少年自杀的研究发现，在该剧播出后，自杀人数增加了约 10%，但在其他国家尚未得到证实。本研究旨在通过研究该剧播出后加拿大人口最多的省份青少年自杀与该剧的关系来填补这一空白。
本研究关注的是该剧于 2017 年 3 月 31 日播出后安大略省年轻人（30 岁以下）的自杀情况。采用时间序列分析方法，使用 2013 年 1 月至 2017 年 3 月的数据，采用简单季节性模型（平稳性 = 0.732，Ljung-Box = 15.1， = 16， = 0.52，贝叶斯信息准则 = 3.09）预测 2017 年 4 月至 12 月的预期死亡人数，以提供最佳拟合/用于主要分析。
模型预测有 224 例自杀，但实际观察到 264 例，即增加了 40 例或 18%。在主要分析中，有 3 个月（5 月、7 月和 10 月）的每月自杀人数超过了 95%置信区间。
尽管这里的发现统计强度受到样本量小的限制，但结果与美国的观察结果一致，如果确实存在传染，这是可以预期的。需要在其他地点进行进一步研究，以增加对这里发现的关联是因果关系的信心。
