中国小反刍兽疫：空间风险分析。

Peste des petits ruminants in China: Spatial risk analysis.

机构信息

Department of Veterinary Surgery, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, China.

出版信息

Transbound Emerg Dis. 2019 Jul;66(4):1784-1788. doi: 10.1111/tbed.13217. Epub 2019 May 20.

Abstract

During the period spanning November 2013 to November 2018, 294 outbreak cases of PPR were diagnosed. Spatio-temporal cluster analysis was performed to determine whether or not areas and time periods with significant aggregation of PPR outbreaks occurred. High-risk areas for PPR outbreaks in China were detected using the presence-only maximum entropy ecological niche model. The analysis identified three statistically significant disease clusters. Precipitation of driest month was identified as the most important predictor for PPRV occurrence.

摘要

在 2013 年 11 月至 2018 年 11 月期间，共诊断出 294 例 PPR 暴发病例。进行时空聚类分析以确定是否存在 PPR 暴发的显著聚集区域和时间段。使用存在唯一的最大熵生态位模型检测中国 PPR 暴发的高风险地区。分析确定了三个具有统计学意义的疾病集群。最干燥月份的降水量被确定为 PPRV 发生的最重要预测因子。