Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management, University of Sousse, Sahloul 4, BP 526 Sousse, Tunisia.
College of Administrative Sciences, Najran University, BP. 1988 Najran, Saudi Arabia; Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management, University of Sousse, Sahloul 4, BP 526 Sousse, Tunisia.
Accid Anal Prev. 2019 Jul;128:185-196. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2019.04.008. Epub 2019 Apr 30.
Focusing on how hot zones mapping can predict spatial patterns of crashes and how different mapping approaches compare can help to better inform their application in practice. This study examines the stability of the performance of two spatial autocorrelation measures on the basis of a Road Safety Risk Index (RSRI) through the comparison of the results for three regions (North-West, Center-East, and Center-West) and for three time periods (2002-2005, 2006-2009 and 2010-2013) in Tunisia. Our study differs from others in that it discusses the identification of probable hot zones and enhances the capability to examine a given highway by determining "dangerous probable lengths", which aims to anticipate the traffic crashes in the future. The identified hot zones and probable hot zones exhibit different regional and temporal characteristics. There are clearly some outstanding spatial clusters of crashes covering specific locations. In both Northwest and Center-West regions, the majority of the identified hot zones and probable hot zones predominantly occur along mainly highways characterized by a dominant rural character. In the Center-East region, both hot zones and probable hot zones are mostly spread northeast and south-west more precisely in NH1 and NH2 where many urban activities are taking place. Spatial autocorrelation indices per region address the diversity within the regions and provide us with useful insights that can be translated into safety policies in Tunisia.
本研究通过比较突尼斯三个地区（西北、中东和中西）和三个时间段（2002-2005 年、2006-2009 年和 2010-2013 年）的结果，基于道路安全风险指数（RSRI），检验了两种空间自相关度量方法在性能上的稳定性。本研究与其他研究的不同之处在于，它讨论了可能热点区域的识别，并通过确定“危险可能长度”来增强了对特定公路进行检查的能力，目的是预测未来的交通事故。确定的热点区域和可能的热点区域表现出不同的区域和时间特征。显然，有一些突出的交通事故空间集群覆盖了特定的地点。在西北和中西地区，大多数确定的热点区域和可能的热点区域主要分布在以农村为主的主要高速公路沿线。在中东地区，热点区域和可能的热点区域主要分布在东北和西南方向，更准确地说是在 NH1 和 NH2 沿线，那里有许多城市活动正在进行。每个区域的空间自相关指数解决了区域内的多样性问题，并为我们提供了有用的见解，可以转化为突尼斯的安全政策。
