Shaikh Masood Ali, Malik Naeem Abbas
Independent Consultant, Karachi, Pakistan.
Institute of Geo-Information and Earth Observation, PMAS Arid Agriculture University Rawalpindi, Pakistan.
J Ayub Med Coll Abbottabad. 2019 Apr-Jun;31(2):293-295.
Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health problem in Pakistan. There are no studies in Pakistan on TB disease mapping and spatial analysis at the country level. This study was conducted to map and identify clusters of TB incidence rates at the district level for all provinces of Pakistan, including Islamabad for all new and relapsed cases of pulmonary TB, for the year 2015. The district level TB rate for new and relapsed cases ranged from 4.7 to 422.6 per 100,000. Global Moran's I was 0.25238, with a pseudo pvalue of 0.001, indicating clustering in the data. Local Moran's I, i.e., Local indicators of Spatial Association identified 11 districts as high-high clusters, and 20 districts as low-low clusters. Better understanding of these hot and cold spot districts would be helped by the availability and analysis of TB data at the more granular level of Union Councils in the country.
结核病是巴基斯坦的一个主要公共卫生问题。巴基斯坦国内尚无关于全国层面结核病疾病地图绘制和空间分析的研究。本研究旨在绘制并识别2015年巴基斯坦所有省份（包括伊斯兰堡）区级层面肺结核所有新发病例和复发病例的结核病发病率集群。新发病例和复发病例的区级结核病发病率在每10万人4.7至422.6之间。全局莫兰指数（Global Moran's I）为0.25238，伪p值为0.001，表明数据中存在集群现象。局部莫兰指数（Local Moran's I），即空间关联局部指标，识别出11个区为高高集群，20个区为低低集群。该国联合委员会更细化层面的结核病数据的可得性和分析将有助于更好地了解这些热点和冷点地区。
