1 AGROSAVIA, Research Center La Suiza, Rionegro-Santander, Colombia.
2 CIRAD, UPR Bioagresseurs, F-34398 Montpellier, France. Bioagresseurs, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, Montpellier, France.
Plant Dis. 2019 Jul;103(7):1665-1673. doi: 10.1094/PDIS-10-18-1761-RE. Epub 2019 May 16.
Frosty pod rot (FPR) caused by is the primary disease affecting cacao production in the major producing countries of the Americas and is one of the major threats to cacao worldwide. The incidence of FPR on clones with different levels of resistance was investigated in four localities of Santander State, Colombia, between July 2013 and May 2015. Dynamics of diseased pods were modeled using boosted regression trees, a machine learning technique that allows regressions to be performed without prior statistical assumptions. The results suggested that FPR epidemics varied according to plot location, clone, weeks of observation, and total pods produced. Dynamics in the phenology of pods had an effect on the epidemics, and this dynamic could partially explain the difference in resistance among clones. Although not total, partial resistance of ICS 95 was confirmed. An important wilt effect was observed, particularly in the resistant clones; consequently, differences in harvested pods were not significant among clones. Pod stripping remains a good practice for the management of the disease and this practice could also have an effect on the pod dynamics and wilt phenomenon.
可可霜霉病（Frosty pod rot，FPR）由引起，是影响美洲主要可可生产国可可产量的主要病害之一，也是全球可可面临的主要威胁之一。本研究于 2013 年 7 月至 2015 年 5 月在哥伦比亚桑坦德省的四个地区调查了不同抗性水平的可可品种上的 FPR 发病率。使用提升回归树（一种机器学习技术）对患病豆荚的动态进行建模，该技术允许在不进行先验统计假设的情况下进行回归。结果表明，FPR 流行情况因种植点位置、品种、观察周数和总产豆荚数而异。豆荚物候动态对流行情况有影响，这种动态可部分解释品种间抗性的差异。虽然不是完全抗性，但确认了 ICS 95 存在部分抗性。观察到严重的萎蔫效应，特别是在抗性品种中；因此，品种间收获豆荚的差异不显著。采荚仍然是管理该病害的一种良好做法，这种做法也可能对豆荚动态和萎蔫现象产生影响。
