Department of Sociology, University of Chicago, 1126 E. 59th Street, Chicago, IL, 60637, USA.
Department of Sociology, University of California, Los Angeles, 264 Haines Hall, 375 Portola Plaza, Los Angeles, CA, 90095-1551, USA.
Demography. 2019 Jun;56(3):891-916. doi: 10.1007/s13524-019-00772-8.
In this article, we report analyses of the effects of fertility and mortality trends on the mutual exposure of grandparents and grandchildren and their consequences for multigenerational processes of social mobility in the United States from 1900 to 2010. Using historical vital statistics and stable population models, we report systematic analyses of grandparent-grandchild exposures from both prospective (grandparent) and retrospective (grandchild) perspectives. We also estimate exposure levels and trends specific to education levels of grandparents and grandchildren and decompose the overall trend into the effect of changing mortality, fertility level, and fertility timing. We show that changes in mutual exposure of grandparent and grandchild generations may have contributed to an increasing association between grandparents' and grandchildren's educational attainments.
本文报告了对 1900 年至 2010 年美国生育和死亡率趋势对祖父母和孙辈之间相互暴露及其对多代社会流动过程的影响的分析。我们使用历史生命统计数据和稳定人口模型,从前瞻性(祖父母)和回溯性(孙辈)两个角度对祖孙之间的暴露情况进行了系统分析。我们还估计了特定于祖父母和孙辈教育水平的暴露水平和趋势,并将整体趋势分解为死亡率变化、生育水平和生育时间的影响。我们发现,祖祖孙孙相互暴露的变化可能导致了祖父母和孙辈教育程度之间关联度的增加。