Stanford University, Y2E2, MC 4205, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA.
Curr Top Microbiol Immunol. 2019;424:85-105. doi: 10.1007/82_2019_162.
Natural and intentional biological risks threaten human civilization, both through direct human fatality as well as follow-on effects from a collapse of the just-in-time delivery system that provides food, energy and critical supplies to communities globally. Human beings have multiple innate cognitive biases that systematically impair careful consideration of these risks. Residents of low-income countries, especially those who live in rural areas and are less dependent upon global trade, may be the most resilient communities to catastrophic risks, but low-income countries also present a heightened risk for biological catastrophe. Hotspots for the emergence of new zoonotic diseases are predominantly located in low-income countries. Crowded, poorly supplied healthcare facilities in low-income countries provide an optimal environment for new pathogens to transmit to a next host and adapt for more efficient person-to-person transmission. Strategies to address these risks include overcoming our natural biases and recognizing the importance of these risks, avoiding an over-reliance on developing specific biological countermeasures, developing generalized social and behavioral responses and investing in resilience.
自然和人为的生物风险威胁着人类文明,不仅会直接导致人类死亡,还会因提供食物、能源和关键物资的即时配送系统崩溃而产生后续影响,而该系统为全球社区服务。人类有多种先天的认知偏见,这些偏见会系统性地影响我们对这些风险的仔细考虑。低收入国家的居民,尤其是那些生活在农村地区、较少依赖全球贸易的居民,可能是对灾难性风险最具弹性的社区,但低收入国家也面临着更高的生物灾难风险。新出现的人畜共患疾病热点主要集中在低收入国家。低收入国家拥挤、供应不足的医疗保健设施为新病原体向下一宿主传播和适应更有效的人际传播提供了最佳环境。应对这些风险的策略包括克服我们的自然偏见,认识到这些风险的重要性,避免过度依赖开发特定的生物对策,制定普遍的社会和行为应对措施,并投资于韧性。