Suweis Samir, Carr Joel A, Maritan Amos, Rinaldo Andrea, D'Odorico Paolo
Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Padova, National Consortium for the Physical Sciences of Matter and the National Institute of Nuclear Physics, 35131 Padova, Italy;
Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904-4123;
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Jun 2;112(22):6902-7. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1507366112. Epub 2015 May 11.
The escalating food demand by a growing and increasingly affluent global population is placing unprecedented pressure on the limited land and water resources of the planet, underpinning concerns over global food security and its sensitivity to shocks arising from environmental fluctuations, trade policies, and market volatility. Here, we use country-specific demographic records along with food production and trade data for the past 25 y to evaluate the stability and reactivity of the relationship between population dynamics and food availability. We develop a framework for the assessment of the resilience and the reactivity of the coupled population-food system and suggest that over the past two decades both its sensitivity to external perturbations and susceptibility to instability have increased.
全球人口不断增长且日益富裕，对食物的需求也在不断增加，这正给地球上有限的土地和水资源带来前所未有的压力，引发了人们对全球粮食安全及其对环境波动、贸易政策和市场波动所产生冲击的敏感性的担忧。在此，我们利用过去25年各国的人口统计记录以及粮食生产和贸易数据，来评估人口动态与食物供应之间关系的稳定性和反应性。我们构建了一个框架，用于评估人口 - 食物耦合系统的恢复力和反应性，并表明在过去二十年中，该系统对外部扰动的敏感性和对不稳定的易感性均有所增加。
