University of Bremen, Germany.
(b)Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan.
Soc Sci Res. 2019 Jul;81:170-191. doi: 10.1016/j.ssresearch.2019.03.013. Epub 2019 Mar 28.
We revisit a longstanding hypothesis that the public become more supportive of redistributive policy as income inequality rises. Previous tests of this hypothesis using various forms of general least squares regressions are inconclusive. We suggest improvements and alternatives to these tests. Using the World Inequality Data and International Social Survey Program we analyze 91 surveys in 18 countries. We incorporate three alternative measures of income inequality, including a measure of liberalization as a known cause of increases in income inequality. We also employ two alternative test formats that arguably reflect the data generating model better than a least squares regression. The first is vector-autoregression aiming to account for path dependency of public opinion and income inequality, and the endogeneity between them. Next is qualitative comparative analysis to capture sets of conditions that collectively should have led to inequality having an impact on public opinion. Finally, we run our regression models separately for low and high socio-economic strata. In all tests we find no measurable impact of income inequality on support for redistribution. From a macro-perspective we argue that this suggests ruling out a general effect that exists across space and time, and focusing instead on theory to explain why there should not be a general effect. Some arguments suggest the public are normatively opposed to what sounds like 'handouts'. We therefore discuss model specification via theory, but also Type II errors, statistical power and the limitations of our conclusions.
我们重新审视了一个长期存在的假设，即随着收入不平等的加剧，公众会越来越支持再分配政策。之前使用各种形式的普通最小二乘法回归对这一假设进行的检验没有得出明确的结论。我们建议对这些检验进行改进和替代。我们使用世界不平等数据库和国际社会调查项目，分析了 18 个国家的 91 项调查。我们纳入了三种替代的收入不平等衡量指标，包括作为收入不平等加剧的已知原因的自由化衡量指标。我们还采用了两种替代的检验格式，这些格式可以更好地反映数据生成模型，而不是最小二乘法回归。第一种是向量自回归，旨在解释民意和收入不平等之间的路径依赖性和它们之间的内生性。其次是定性比较分析，以捕捉应共同导致不平等对公众舆论产生影响的条件集。最后，我们分别为低社会经济阶层和高社会经济阶层运行回归模型。在所有检验中，我们都没有发现收入不平等对支持再分配的可衡量影响。从宏观角度来看，我们认为这表明排除了一个普遍存在于空间和时间上的影响，并转而专注于理论，以解释为什么不应该存在普遍影响。一些观点认为，公众在规范上反对听起来像是“施舍”的东西。因此，我们通过理论讨论了模型规格，但也讨论了第二类错误、统计能力和我们结论的局限性。
