Wojkowski Jakub, Młyński Dariusz, Lepeška Tomáš, Wałęga Andrzej, Radecki-Pawlik Artur
Department of Ecology, Climatology and Air Protection, University of Agriculture in Kraków, Mickiewicza 24/28, 31-059 Kraków, Poland.
Department of Sanitary Engineering and Water Management, University of Agriculture in Kraków, Mickiewicza 24/28, 31-059 Kraków, Poland.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Sep 15;683:293-307. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.159. Epub 2019 May 16.
This study aimed to determine the link between a hydric potential of catchments (LHP) and the predictability (P) of maximum flow of selected rivers in southern Poland (within the Upper Vistula basin) and Slovakia. The LHP method refers to the ability of ecosystems to slow down runoff and retain water. The LHP method is focused on the analysis of the following indicators, shaping the geosphere at the catchment scale: hydrogeological conditions, soil conditions, meteorological conditions, geomorphological conditions, and land use. The predictability of river flows, calculated as one of the Colwell's indices, represents a measure of confidence with regard to the state of a flood event at a given point. To determine links between the LHP and P, a cluster analysis was used with the Ward method of agglomeration. The mean LHP varied between 1.2 for the Skawa River and 20.1 for the Vistula River. Only the Vistula River has very high LHP. The rest of the investigated rivers had medium and low values of LHP. The mean predictability of maximum flows for all rivers was relatively high (0.54), with the highest value obtained for the Wisłok River (0.69) and the lowest one for the Białka River (0.40). Cluster analysis showed that the studied catchments may be aggregated into four homogeneity clusters: first - catchments with high P and limited LHP, second - catchments with mean P and low LHP, third - with low P and average LHP and fourth - with very high P and medium and excellent LHP. The results are important for the management of catchments, especially for planning of any land use changes and investment projects related to water retention.
本研究旨在确定集水区水分潜力（LHP）与波兰南部（维斯瓦河上游流域内）和斯洛伐克选定河流最大流量的可预测性（P）之间的联系。LHP方法指的是生态系统减缓径流和蓄水的能力。LHP方法侧重于分析以下在集水区尺度上塑造地球圈层的指标：水文地质条件、土壤条件、气象条件、地貌条件和土地利用。河流流量的可预测性，作为科尔韦尔指数之一进行计算，代表了对给定地点洪水事件状态的置信度衡量。为了确定LHP和P之间的联系，使用了凝聚法中的沃德法进行聚类分析。LHP的平均值在斯卡瓦河的1.2至维斯瓦河的20.1之间变化。只有维斯瓦河具有非常高的LHP。其余被调查河流的LHP值为中等和低等。所有河流最大流量的平均可预测性相对较高（0.54），维斯沃克河的最高值为0.69，比亚尔卡河的最低值为0.40。聚类分析表明，所研究的集水区可聚为四个同质聚类：第一类——具有高P和有限LHP的集水区，第二类——具有中等P和低LHP的集水区，第三类——具有低P和平均LHP的集水区，第四类——具有非常高P以及中等和优异LHP的集水区。这些结果对于集水区管理很重要，特别是对于规划任何与保水相关的土地利用变化和投资项目。
