1 Klinik und Hochschulambulanz für Neurologie Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin Germany.
2 Center for Stroke Research Berlin (CSB) Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin Germany.
J Am Heart Assoc. 2019 Jun 18;8(12):e012665. doi: 10.1161/JAHA.119.012665. Epub 2019 Jun 13.
Background The best strategy to identify patients with suspected acute ischemic stroke and unknown vessel status (large vessel occlusion) for direct transport to a comprehensive stroke center instead of a nearer primary stroke center is unknown. Methods and Results We used mathematical modeling to estimate the impact of 10 increasingly complex prehospital triage strategy paradigms on the reduction of population-wide stroke-related disability. The model was applied to suspected acute ischemic stroke patients in (1) abstract geographies, and (2) 3 real-world urban and rural geographies in Germany. Transport times were estimated based on stroke center location and road infrastructure; spatial distribution of emergency medical services calls was derived from census data with high spatial granularity. Parameter uncertainty was quantified in sensitivity analyses. The mothership strategy was associated with a statistically significant population-wide gain of 8 to 18 disability-adjusted life years in the 3 real-world geographies and in most simulated abstract geographies (net gain -4 to 66 disability-adjusted life years). Of the more complex paradigms, transportation of patients with clinically suspected large vessel occlusion based on a dichotomous large vessel occlusion detection scale to the nearest comprehensive stroke center yielded an additional clinical benefit of up to 12 disability-adjusted life years in some rural but not in urban geographies. Triage strategy paradigms based on probabilistic conditional modeling added an additional benefit of 0 to 4 disability-adjusted life years over less complex strategies if based on variable cutoff scores. Conclusions Variable stroke severity cutoff scores were associated with the highest reduction in stroke-related disability. The mothership strategy yielded better clinical outcome than the drip-'n'-ship strategy in most geographies.
背景 对于疑似急性缺血性脑卒中且血管状态未知(大血管闭塞)的患者,最佳策略是直接送往综合性卒中中心,而不是较近的初级卒中中心,但目前尚不清楚哪种策略效果最好。
方法和结果 我们使用数学模型来评估 10 种日益复杂的院前分诊策略模式对减少全人群卒中相关性残疾的影响。该模型应用于(1)抽象地理区域和(2)德国 3 个真实城市和农村地理区域的疑似急性缺血性脑卒中患者。根据卒中中心的位置和道路基础设施来估计转运时间;利用具有高空间分辨率的人口普查数据推导出紧急医疗服务呼叫的空间分布。在敏感性分析中对参数不确定性进行量化。母舰策略与在 3 个真实地理区域和大多数模拟的抽象地理区域中全人群减少 8 至 18 个伤残调整生命年具有统计学意义的相关性(净获益-4 至 66 个伤残调整生命年)。在更复杂的策略中,基于二分类大血管闭塞检测量表将疑似临床大血管闭塞的患者转运至最近的综合性卒中中心,在一些农村地区而不是在城市地区可能会额外带来 12 个伤残调整生命年的临床获益。基于概率条件建模的分诊策略模式,如果基于变量截断评分,则比简单的策略额外获益 0 至 4 个伤残调整生命年。
结论 可变的卒中严重程度截断评分与卒中相关性残疾的降低程度相关性最高。在大多数地理区域中,母舰策略比滴灌-ship 策略的临床结局更好。