预测II期鼻咽癌患者根治性治疗后总生存的列线图的开发与外部验证

Development and external validation of a nomogram for predicting the overall survival of patients with stage II nasopharyngeal carcinoma after curative treatment.

作者信息

He Sha-Sha, Wang Cheng-Tao, Peng Zhen-Wei, Ren Yu-Feng, Lu Li-Xia, Chen Rui-Wan, Liang Shao-Bo, Wang Yan, Chen Yong

机构信息

Department of Radiation Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080, People's Republic of China.

Department of Radiation Oncology, Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080, People's Republic of China.

出版信息

Cancer Manag Res. 2019 May 10;11:4403-4412. doi: 10.2147/CMAR.S202151. eCollection 2019.

Abstract

To facilitate decision-making support for individual patients, development and external validation of a nomogram was undertaken to reveal prognostic factors and predict the value of concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) compared with radiotherapy (RT) for stage-II nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients. Clinical data of 419 and 309 patients with American Joint Committee on Cancer (2017) stage-II NPC in two institutions in China were collected retrospectively. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival were compared using Kaplan-Meier estimates. Cox regression analysis was used to identify the prognostic factors for building the nomogram. Predictive accuracy and discriminative ability were measured using the Concordance Index. Finally, there were 24 and 20 deaths in the development and validation group, respectively. Patients with stage T2N1, N1 stage, involvement of retropharyngeal and unilateral cervical lymph nodes, and who had RT alone had worse OS (=0.019, 0.035, 0.003 and 0.010, respectively; log-rank test) than patients with stage T1N1 and T2N0, N0 stage, involvement of retropharyngeal or unilateral cervical lymph nodes, and CCRT, respectively. After multivariate analysis of the training set, age, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, therapy type, and pretreatment plasma concentration of Epstein-Barr virus DNA were independent prognostic factors of OS. A nomogram was established externally by involving all the factors stated above. The Concordance Index for the established nomogram to predict the OS of the training set was 0.793 (95% CI 0.689-0.897), and 0.803 (95% CI 0.696-0.910) in the validation set. These data suggest that the nomogram was validated externally, could predict long-term outcome accurately, and enable accurate stratification of risk groups for stage-II NPC. Our model facilitated individualized care of NPC patients.

摘要

为便于为个体患者提供决策支持,我们开展了一项列线图的开发及外部验证工作,以揭示预后因素,并预测与单纯放疗(RT)相比,同步放化疗(CCRT)对II期鼻咽癌(NPC)患者的价值。我们回顾性收集了中国两家机构中419例和309例符合美国癌症联合委员会(2017年)II期NPC标准患者的临床数据。采用Kaplan-Meier估计法比较总生存期(OS)和无进展生存期。使用Cox回归分析确定用于构建列线图的预后因素。使用一致性指数测量预测准确性和鉴别能力。最后,开发组和验证组分别有24例和20例死亡。T2N1期、N1期、咽后及单侧颈淋巴结受累且单纯接受RT的患者,其OS分别比T1N1期和T2N0期、N0期、咽后或单侧颈淋巴结受累且接受CCRT的患者更差(分别为P=0.019、0.035、0.003和0.010;对数秩检验)。对训练集进行多因素分析后,年龄、中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值、治疗类型和治疗前血浆Epstein-Barr病毒DNA浓度是OS的独立预后因素。通过纳入上述所有因素,我们在外部建立了一个列线图。所建立的列线图预测训练集OS的一致性指数为0.793(95%CI 0.689-0.897),在验证集中为0.803(95%CI 0.696-0.910)。这些数据表明,该列线图经过了外部验证,能够准确预测长期预后,并能够对II期NPC患者进行准确的风险分层。我们的模型有助于NPC患者的个体化治疗。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/409f/6519021/b4d86c802ce9/CMAR-11-4403-g0001.jpg

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