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具有访客亚群的社区中的传染病动力学模型。

A model for epidemic dynamics in a community with visitor subpopulation.

机构信息

Research Center for Pure and Applied Mathematics, Graduate School of Information Sciences, Tohoku University, Aramaki-Aza-Aoba 6-3-09, Aoba-ku, Sendai 980-8579, Japan.

Research Center for Pure and Applied Mathematics, Graduate School of Information Sciences, Tohoku University, Aramaki-Aza-Aoba 6-3-09, Aoba-ku, Sendai 980-8579, Japan.

出版信息

J Theor Biol. 2019 Oct 7;478:115-127. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.06.020. Epub 2019 Jun 20.

Abstract

With a five dimensional system of ordinary differential equations based on the SIR and SIS models, we consider the dynamics of epidemics in a community which consists of residents and short-stay visitors. Taking different viewpoints to consider public health policies to control the disease, we derive different basic reproduction numbers and clarify their common/different mathematical natures so as to understand their meanings in the dynamics of the epidemic. From our analyses, the short-stay visitor subpopulation could become significant in determining the fate of diseases in the community. Furthermore, our arguments demonstrate that it is necessary to choose one variant of basic reproduction number in order to formulate appropriate public health policies.

摘要

我们建立了一个基于 SIR 和 SIS 模型的五维常微分方程组,来研究由常住居民和短期访客组成的社区中的传染病动力学。从不同角度考虑公共卫生政策来控制疾病,我们推导出了不同的基本再生数,并阐明了它们的共同/不同的数学性质,以便理解它们在传染病动力学中的意义。通过我们的分析,短期访客亚群在决定疾病在社区中的命运方面可能变得非常重要。此外,我们的论证表明,有必要选择一个基本再生数的变体来制定适当的公共卫生政策。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cfaf/7094103/b0d7ab904fbd/gr1_lrg.jpg

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