OBJECTIVE

Despite heterogeneous biology, similar surveillance schemas are utilized after resection of all pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PanNETs). Given concerns regarding excess radiation exposure and financial burden, our aim was to develop a prognostic score for disease recurrence to guide individually tailored surveillance strategies.

METHODS

All patients with primary nonfunctioning, nonmetastatic well/moderately differentiated PanNETs who underwent curative-intent resection at 9-institutions from 2000 to 2016 were included (n = 1006). A Recurrence Risk Score (RRS) was developed from a randomly selected derivation cohort comprised of 67% of patients and verified on the validation-cohort comprised of the remaining 33%.

RESULTS

On multivariable analysis, patients within the derivation cohort (n = 681) with symptomatic tumors (jaundice, pain, bleeding), tumors >2 cm, Ki67 >3%, and lymph node (LN) (+) disease had increased recurrence. Each factor was assigned a score based on their weighted odds ratio that formed a RRS of 0 to 10: symptomatic = 1, tumor >2 cm = 2, Ki67 3% to 20% = 1, Ki67 >20% = 6, LN (+) = 1. Patients were grouped into low- (RRS = 0-2; n = 247), intermediate-(RRS = 3-5; n = 204), or high (RRS = 6-10; n = 9)-risk groups. At 24 months, 33% of high RRS recurred, whereas only 2% of low and 14% of intermediate RRS recurred. This persisted in the validation cohort (n = 325).

CONCLUSIONS

This international, novel, internally validated RRS accurately stratifies recurrence-free survival for patients with resected PanNETs. Given their unique recurrence patterns, surveillance intervals of 12, 6, and 3 months are proposed for low, intermediate, and high RRS patients, respectively, to minimize radiation exposure and optimize cost/resource utilization.