1 Faculty of Social Sciences/Health Sciences, Tampere University, Finland.
2 Petrov National Research Medical Center of Oncology, Russia.
Scand J Public Health. 2019 Jul;47(5):482-491. doi: 10.1177/1403494819845565.
Productivity losses related to premature cancer mortality have been assessed for most developed countries but results for Russia are limited to cross-sectional reports. The aim of this study was to quantify productivity costs due to cancer mortality in Russia between 2001 and 2015 and project this to 2030. : Cancer mortality data (2001-2015) were acquired from the State Cancer Registry, whereas population data, labour force participation rates and annual earnings were retrieved from the Federal State Statistics Service. Cancer mortality was projected to 2030 and the human capital approach was applied to estimate productivity losses. : The total annual losses increased from US6.5b in 2001-2005 to US$8.1b in 2011-2015, corresponding to 0.24% of the annual gross domestic product. The value is expected to remain high in 2030 (US$7.5b, 0.14% of gross domestic product). Productivity losses per cancer death are predicted to grow faster in women (from US$18,622 to US$22,386) than in men (from US$25,064 to US$28,459). Total losses were found to be highest for breast cancer in women (US$0.6b, 20% of overall losses in women) and lung cancer in men (US$1.2b, 24%). The absolute predicted change of annual losses between 2011-2015 and 2026-2030 was greatest for cervix uteri (+US$214m) in women and for lip, oral and pharyngeal cancers in men (+US$182m).
与过早癌症死亡相关的生产力损失已在大多数发达国家进行了评估，但俄罗斯的结果仅限于横断面报告。本研究旨在量化 2001 年至 2015 年俄罗斯因癌症死亡造成的生产力损失，并预测到 2030 年。：癌症死亡率数据（2001-2015 年）来自国家癌症登记处，而人口数据、劳动力参与率和年收益则来自联邦国家统计局。癌症死亡率预测到 2030 年，并应用人力资本方法估算生产力损失。：2001-2005 年，每年的总损失从 65 亿美元增加到 2011-2015 年的 81 亿美元，占国内生产总值的 0.24%。预计到 2030 年，这一数字仍将居高不下（75 亿美元，占国内生产总值的 0.14%）。预计女性的生产力损失（从 18622 美元增加到 22386 美元）将比男性（从 25064 美元增加到 28459 美元）增长更快。在女性中，乳腺癌（6 亿美元，占女性总损失的 20%）和男性肺癌（12 亿美元，占 24%）的总损失最高。2011-2015 年和 2026-2030 年之间，每年损失的绝对预测变化在女性中以宫颈癌（增加 2.14 亿美元）最大，在男性中以唇、口腔和咽癌（增加 1.82 亿美元）最大。
