Fraser of Allander Institute and Department of Economics, Sir William Duncan Building, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK.
Institute of Alcohol Studies, London, UK.
Drug Alcohol Rev. 2019 Jul;38(5):554-560. doi: 10.1111/dar.12962.
The health benefits of reducing excessive alcohol consumption are well-documented and widely accepted, but policies directed to this end are often regarded as damaging to the economy. Previous UK alcohol impact studies typically focus on what are in effect the 'gross' impacts of a fall in alcohol consumption considered in isolation, so that estimated economic impacts are always negative. Here we investigate the 'net' impacts of a reduction in consumption accounting for the reallocation of household spending and the expenditure of any increase in government revenues.
We employ a health-augmented, Input-Output modelling framework. We simulate the impact of a reduction in alcohol consumption due to: a change in consumer tastes that generate a reallocation of household spending; an increase in alcohol duties accompanied by the use of increased revenues to stimulate government expenditure.
We find evidence of a trade-off between employment and health benefits for the case of a tastes-induced switch from alcohol consumption, but this is less severe than past analyses would suggest (and does not apply to economic activity more generally). For the case of increased taxation on alcohol (and increased government spending) we find that there is in fact no trade-off between employment on the one hand and health on the other; employment and economic activity are stimulated while health outcomes improve.
There is a potential 'double-dividend' of improved health outcomes and increased economic activity as a consequence of a rise in alcohol duties.
减少过量饮酒对健康的好处有充分的记录和广泛的认可，但旨在实现这一目标的政策往往被认为对经济有害。以前的英国酒精影响研究通常集中在孤立考虑的情况下，即考虑到酒精消费下降的“总”影响，因此估计的经济影响总是负面的。在这里，我们研究了减少消费的“净”影响，考虑了家庭支出的重新分配和政府收入增加的支出。
我们采用健康增强的投入产出建模框架。我们模拟了由于以下原因导致的酒精消费减少的影响：消费者口味的变化导致家庭支出的重新分配；提高酒精税，同时利用增加的收入刺激政府支出。
我们发现，对于由于口味变化导致的从饮酒消费转变的情况，就业和健康之间存在权衡，但这种情况不如过去的分析所表明的那么严重（并且不适用于更广泛的经济活动）。对于提高酒精税（和增加政府支出）的情况，我们发现实际上就业和健康之间没有权衡取舍；就业和经济活动得到了刺激，同时健康状况也得到了改善。
由于提高酒精税，健康状况的改善和经济活动的增加可能会带来“双重红利”。
