Loh Tzu Yang, Brito Mario P, Bose Neil, Xu Jingjing, Tenekedjiev Kiril
Australian Maritime College, University of Tasmania, Tasmania, Australia.
Centre for Risk Research, Southampton Business School, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
Risk Anal. 2019 Dec;39(12):2744-2765. doi: 10.1111/risa.13376. Epub 2019 Jul 18.
The use of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) for various scientific, commercial, and military applications has become more common with maturing technology and improved accessibility. One relatively new development lies in the use of AUVs for under-ice marine science research in the Antarctic. The extreme environment, ice cover, and inaccessibility as compared to open-water missions can result in a higher risk of loss. Therefore, having an effective assessment of risks before undertaking any Antarctic under-ice missions is crucial to ensure an AUV's survival. Existing risk assessment approaches predominantly focused on the use of historical fault log data of an AUV and elicitation of experts' opinions for probabilistic quantification. However, an AUV program in its early phases lacks historical data and any assessment of risk may be vague and ambiguous. In this article, a fuzzy-based risk assessment framework is proposed for quantifying the risk of AUV loss under ice. The framework uses the knowledge, prior experience of available subject matter experts, and the widely used semiquantitative risk assessment matrix, albeit in a new form. A well-developed example based on an upcoming mission by an ISE-explorer class AUV is presented to demonstrate the application and effectiveness of the proposed framework. The example demonstrates that the proposed fuzzy-based risk assessment framework is pragmatically useful for future under-ice AUV deployments. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates the validity of the proposed method.
随着技术的成熟和可及性的提高，自主水下航行器（AUV）在各种科学、商业和军事应用中的使用越来越普遍。一个相对较新的发展是将AUV用于南极的冰下海洋科学研究。与开阔水域任务相比，极端环境、冰层覆盖和难以到达可能导致更高的损失风险。因此，在执行任何南极冰下任务之前进行有效的风险评估对于确保AUV的生存至关重要。现有的风险评估方法主要集中于使用AUV的历史故障日志数据以及征求专家意见进行概率量化。然而，处于早期阶段的AUV项目缺乏历史数据，任何风险评估可能都是模糊不清的。在本文中，提出了一种基于模糊的风险评估框架，用于量化冰下AUV损失的风险。该框架使用了现有主题专家的知识、先前经验以及广泛使用的半定量风险评估矩阵，尽管是以一种新的形式。给出了一个基于ISE探索者级AUV即将执行的任务的详细示例，以证明所提出框架的应用和有效性。该示例表明，所提出的基于模糊的风险评估框架对于未来冰下AUV部署具有实际用途。敏感性分析证明了所提方法的有效性。
