Australian Maritime College, University of Tasmania, Australia.
Centre for Risk Research, Southampton Business School, University of Southampton, United Kingdom.
Risk Anal. 2020 Jun;40(6):1258-1278. doi: 10.1111/risa.13467. Epub 2020 Mar 6.
The use of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) for various applications have grown with maturing technology and improved accessibility. The deployment of AUVs for under-ice marine science research in the Antarctic is one such example. However, a higher risk of AUV loss is present during such endeavors due to the extremities in the Antarctic. A thorough analysis of risks is therefore crucial for formulating effective risk control policies and achieving a lower risk of loss. Existing risk analysis approaches focused predominantly on the technical aspects, as well as identifying static cause and effect relationships in the chain of events leading to AUV loss. Comparatively, the complex interrelationships between risk variables and other aspects of risk such as human errors have received much lesser attention. In this article, a systems-based risk analysis framework facilitated by system dynamics methodology is proposed to overcome existing shortfalls. To demonstrate usefulness of the framework, it is applied on an actual AUV program to examine the occurrence of human error during Antarctic deployment. Simulation of the resultant risk model showed an overall decline in human error incident rate with the increase in experience of the AUV team. Scenario analysis based on the example provided policy recommendations in areas of training, practice runs, recruitment policy, and setting of risk tolerance level. The proposed risk analysis framework is pragmatically useful for risk analysis of future AUV programs to ensure the sustainability of operations, facilitating both better control and monitoring of risk.
自主水下航行器（AUV）在各种应用中的使用随着技术的成熟和可及性的提高而增加。例如，在南极进行冰下海洋科学研究时就部署了 AUV。然而，由于南极的极端条件，AUV 在这种情况下丢失的风险更高。因此，进行彻底的风险分析对于制定有效的风险控制政策和降低损失风险至关重要。现有的风险分析方法主要侧重于技术方面，以及在导致 AUV 丢失的事件链中识别静态因果关系。相比之下，风险变量之间以及风险的其他方面（如人为错误）之间的复杂相互关系则受到较少关注。本文提出了一个基于系统的风险分析框架，借助系统动力学方法来克服现有缺陷。为了展示该框架的实用性，将其应用于实际的 AUV 计划，以检查在南极部署期间人为错误的发生情况。风险模型的模拟结果表明，随着 AUV 团队经验的增加，人为错误事件的发生率总体呈下降趋势。基于所提供示例的情景分析提出了培训、实践运行、招聘政策和设定风险容忍度等领域的政策建议。所提出的风险分析框架对于未来 AUV 计划的风险分析具有实际意义，可以确保操作的可持续性，从而更好地控制和监测风险。
