Departamento de Ecologia, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; Instituto de Biologia, Universidade Federal da Bahia, Bahia, Brazil.
Programa de Coleções Científicas Biológicas, Coordenação de Biodiversidade, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil.
Comp Biochem Physiol A Mol Integr Physiol. 2019 Oct;236:110530. doi: 10.1016/j.cbpa.2019.110530. Epub 2019 Jul 15.
The scarcity of data on natural history and ecology of lizards still limits the understanding of population dynamics for many species. We attempt to evaluate possible effects of climate change on the population dynamics of three lizard species (Ameiva ameiva, Gonatodes humeralis and Norops fuscoauratus) in two Amazonian localities (Caxiuanã National Forest and Ducke Reserve). We calculated a tolerance index combining environmental thermal adequacy with the b-d model, which consider survival and reproductive rates to calculate population dynamics. Thus, we simulated population growth rates based on current and future environmental operative temperatures, considering an optimistic and a business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse gases emissions (GGE), and evaluate if the sensitivity of life history traits to population growth rate are likely to be trigged by climate change. Our results demonstrated that both populations of G. humeralis and the Ducke population of N. fuscoauratus may become locally extinct under both scenarios of GGE, while both populations of A. ameiva are likely to decrease, but without reaching a scenario of local extirpation. This study represents the first effort to evaluate the sensitivity of lizard populations and elasticity to climate change and demonstrate the geographic variability of these traits in three widespread and habitat-generalist species. We highlight the need of new studies focusing on species with different biological trait patterns, such as endemic distributions and habitat-specialists, to provide the theoretical and empirical basis for biologically informed conservation strategies and actions, in order to minimize the potential extinction of populations due to climate change.
关于蜥蜴的自然历史和生态学的数据稀缺仍然限制了对许多物种种群动态的理解。我们试图评估气候变化对两种亚马逊地区（卡西亚万纳国家森林和达克保护区）的三种蜥蜴物种（Ameiva ameiva、Gonatodes humeralis 和 Norops fuscoauratus）种群动态的可能影响。我们计算了一个综合环境热适宜性和 b-d 模型的耐受指数，该模型考虑了生存和繁殖率来计算种群动态。因此，我们根据当前和未来的环境有效温度，基于乐观和温室气体排放的常规情景（GGE）来模拟种群增长率，并评估蜥蜴生活史特征对种群增长率的敏感性是否可能因气候变化而引发。我们的结果表明，在 GGE 的两种情景下，G. humeralis 的两个种群和达克保护区的 N. fuscoauratus 种群可能局部灭绝，而 A. ameiva 的两个种群可能减少，但不会达到局部灭绝的情景。本研究首次评估了蜥蜴种群对气候变化的敏感性和弹性，并展示了这三个广泛分布和生境广适性物种在地理上的这些特征的可变性。我们强调需要开展新的研究，关注具有不同生物特征模式的物种，如特有分布和生境专家，以为基于生物学的保护策略和行动提供理论和经验基础，以尽量减少因气候变化而导致的种群灭绝的潜在风险。
