Departamento de Física, Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Maringá, PR, 87020-900, Brazil.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research - PIK, P.O. Box 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany.
Nat Commun. 2019 Jul 19;10(1):3204. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-11184-y.
The question of whether urbanization contributes to increasing carbon dioxide emissions has been mainly investigated via scaling relationships with population or population density. However, these approaches overlook the correlations between population and area, and ignore possible interactions between these quantities. Here, we propose a generalized framework that simultaneously considers the effects of population and area along with possible interactions between these urban metrics. Our results significantly improve the description of emissions and reveal the coupled role between population and density on emissions. These models show that variations in emissions associated with proportionate changes in population or density may not only depend on the magnitude of these changes but also on the initial values of these quantities. For US areas, the larger the city, the higher is the impact of changing its population or density on its emissions; but population changes always have a greater effect on emissions than population density.
城市化是否会导致二氧化碳排放量增加，这个问题主要是通过与人口或人口密度的规模关系来研究的。然而，这些方法忽略了人口与面积之间的相关性，也忽略了这些数量之间可能存在的相互作用。在这里，我们提出了一个通用框架，同时考虑了人口和面积的影响，以及这些城市指标之间可能存在的相互作用。我们的结果显著改善了排放的描述，并揭示了人口和密度对排放的耦合作用。这些模型表明，与人口或密度成比例变化相关的排放变化不仅取决于这些变化的幅度，还取决于这些数量的初始值。对于美国地区，城市越大，其人口或密度变化对其排放的影响就越大；但人口变化对排放的影响总是大于人口密度。
