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利用时间日记数据改进程式化工作时间估计:英国的多项研究评估

Improving Stylised Working Time Estimates with Time Diary Data: A Multi Study Assessment for the UK.

作者信息

Walthery Pierre, Gershuny Jonathan

机构信息

Centre for Time Use Research, Department of Sociology, University of Oxford, 5 Manor Road, Oxford, OX1 3UQ United Kingdom.

出版信息

Soc Indic Res. 2019;144(3):1303-1321. doi: 10.1007/s11205-019-02074-3. Epub 2019 Feb 15.

Abstract

Accurate working time estimates represent an important component of the statistical toolbox used for economics forecasting and policy-making. The relatively good availability of such estimates may sometimes induce researchers to take them for granted and see their reliability as largely unproblematic. There is however a growing body of evidence showing that measurement errors may affect their robustness and quality, especially as far as specific but policy relevant subgroups of the population such as part-time or atypical workers are concerned. Against this background, the goal of this paper is to investigate the reliability of paid weekly working-time measurement instruments commonly available in a key UK social survey, the Labour Force Survey. It focuses on the discrepancies between estimates obtained by self-assessed/aggregated instruments-also known as stylised-and those recorded using time diaries which have been found more truthful to the time spent working in ones paid job(s). It is also to explore ways to improve the reliability of stylised estimates in datasets for which no time diary instruments are available, contrasting those where 'usual' and 'actual' hours of work are recorded. It does so by creating calibration weights based on the Work Schedule recorded in the 2000 and 2015 UK Time Use Surveys and using them to up/down scale stylised estimates in the 2000 and 2015 UK Labour Force Survey using statistical matching. Such techniques could enable significant improvements of measurement errors in large scale social surveys at a minimal cost.

摘要

准确的工作时间估计是用于经济预测和政策制定的统计工具包的重要组成部分。这类估计相对容易获得,这有时可能会使研究人员将其视为理所当然,并认为其可靠性大体上没有问题。然而,越来越多的证据表明,测量误差可能会影响其稳健性和质量,特别是对于人口中的特定但与政策相关的亚群体,如兼职工人或非典型工人。在此背景下,本文的目标是调查英国一项关键社会调查——劳动力调查中常用的每周带薪工作时间测量工具的可靠性。它关注自我评估/汇总工具(也称为程式化工具)得出的估计与使用时间日记记录的估计之间的差异,时间日记已被发现更能如实反映在有偿工作中花费的时间。本文还将探索在没有时间日记工具的数据集里提高程式化估计可靠性的方法,并将那些记录了“通常”和“实际”工作时间的数据集进行对比。具体做法是根据2000年和2015年英国时间使用调查中记录的工作时间表创建校准权重,并使用统计匹配方法对2000年和2015年英国劳动力调查中的程式化估计进行上调/下调。这些技术能够以最小的成本大幅减少大规模社会调查中的测量误差。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9c06/6609582/5ebf49907d64/11205_2019_2074_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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