日本2000年胃癌死亡率的预测。
Prediction of the gastric cancer mortality in 2000 in Japan.
作者信息
Watanabe S, Tsugane S, Ohno Y
机构信息
Epidemiology Division, National Cancer Center Research Institute, Tokyo.
出版信息
Jpn J Cancer Res. 1988 Apr;79(4):439-44. doi: 10.1111/j.1349-7006.1988.tb01611.x.
Abstract
Gastric cancer mortality in Japan in the year 2000 has been predicted from sex- and age-specific incidences and mortality trends and patient cure rates. The difference between the log-linear decrease in incidence and the log-quadratic decrease in mortality was considered to be the result of early diagnosis and treatment. Even on the assumption that 90% of patients could be cured in 2000, the number of deaths was estimated to be about 10,000. The decreasing incidence of cases brought about by birth cohort effects may contribute towards lowering the number of patients. The importance of health education in lowering the incidence of gastric cancer, by teaching people to keep up a sound life style, is discussed.
摘要
根据特定性别和年龄的发病率、死亡率趋势以及患者治愈率，预测了2000年日本胃癌的死亡率。发病率的对数线性下降与死亡率的对数二次下降之间的差异被认为是早期诊断和治疗的结果。即使假设在2000年90%的患者能够治愈，死亡人数估计仍约为10,000人。出生队列效应导致的病例发病率下降可能有助于减少患者数量。文中讨论了通过教导人们保持健康的生活方式，开展健康教育对于降低胃癌发病率的重要性。
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