支气管肺发育不良：极低出生体重儿的风险预测模型。
Bronchopulmonary dysplasia: risk prediction models for very-low- birth-weight infants.
机构信息
Departamento de Neonatología, Facultad de Medicina, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
Unidad de Neonatologia, Instituto Universitario Hospital Italiano Buenos Aires, Potosí, Argentina.
出版信息
J Perinatol. 2019 Sep;39(9):1275-1281. doi: 10.1038/s41372-019-0430-x. Epub 2019 Jul 23.
OBJECTIVE
Our objective is to develop risk prediction models for moderate/severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) and BPD and/or death in very-low-birth-weight infants (VLBWI) at birth, 3, 7, and 14 postnatal days.
STUDY DESIGN
It is a multicenter study including 16,407 infants weighing 500-1500 g (2001-2015) from the Neocosur Network. BPD was defined as oxygen dependency at 36 weeks. Variables were selected using forward logistic regression models. Predictive values were evaluated using the ROC curve.
RESULTS
In total, 2580 (15.7%) presented BPD and 6121 (37.3%) BPD/death. The AUC values for the BPD models were 0.788, 0.818, 0.827, and 0.894 respectively. For BPD/death, the AUC values were 0.860, 0.869, 0.867, and 0.906. BW and gestational age had higher contribution at birth; at later ages, the length of oxygen therapy and ventilation had the highest contribution. All AUC values were statistically significant when compared with a neutral value of 0.5 (p-value < 0.001).
CONCLUSIONS
We developed high predictive power models for moderate/severe BPD and BPD/death at four postnatal ages.
目的
本研究旨在为出生时、生后第 3、7、14 天体重 500-1500g 的极低出生体重儿（VLBWI）中中重度支气管肺发育不良（BPD）和 BPD 及死亡建立风险预测模型。
研究设计
这是一项多中心研究，共纳入了来自 Neocosur 网络的 16407 例体重 500-1500g 的婴儿（2001-2015 年）。BPD 定义为生后 36 周氧依赖。采用逐步逻辑回归模型选择变量。通过 ROC 曲线评估预测值。
结果
共有 2580 例（15.7%）发生 BPD，6121 例（37.3%）发生 BPD/死亡。BPD 模型的 AUC 值分别为 0.788、0.818、0.827 和 0.894。对于 BPD/死亡，AUC 值分别为 0.860、0.869、0.867 和 0.906。BW 和胎龄在出生时的贡献较高，而在后期，氧疗和通气时间的长度具有最高的贡献。与中性值 0.5 相比，所有 AUC 值均具有统计学意义（p 值均<0.001）。
结论
我们建立了具有高预测能力的四个生后年龄的中重度 BPD 和 BPD/死亡预测模型。
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