Spatial distribution and spread potential of sixteen Leptospira serovars in a subtropical region of Brazil.

Leptospirosis is a bacterial disease that represents a major problem in animal and public health due to its high prevalence and widespread distribution. This zoonotic disease is most prevalent in tropical environments where conditions favour pathogen survival. The ecological preferences of Leptospira serovars are poorly understood, limiting our knowledge of where and when outbreaks can occur, which may result in misinformed prevention and control plans. While the disease can occur consistently in time and space in tropical regions, research on the ecology of leptospirosis remains limited in subtropical regions. This research gap regarding Leptospira ecology brings public and veterinary health problems, impacting local economies. To fill this gap of knowledge, we suggest to assess geographic and ecological features among Leptospira serovars in a subtropical area of Brazil where leptospirosis is endemic to (a) highlight environmental conditions that facilitate or limit Leptospira spread and survival and (b) reconstruct its geographic distribution. An ecological niche modelling framework was used to characterize and compare Leptospira serovars in both geographic and environmental space. Our results show that despite the geographic overlap exhibited by the different serovars assessed, we found ecological divergence among their occupied ecological niches. Ecological divergences were expressed as ranges of potential distributions and environmental conditions found suitably by serovar, Sejroe being the most asymmetric (<0.15). Most important predictors for the potential distribution of most serovars were soil pH (31.7%) and landscape temperature (24.2%). Identification of environmental preferences will allow epidemiologists to better infer the presence of a serovar based on the environmental characteristics of regions rather than inferences based solely on historical epidemiological records. Including geographic and ecological ranges of serovars also may help to forecast transmission potential of Leptospira in public health and the food animal practice.