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2014-2016 年加利福尼亚州全州和地区甲烷排放的多平台反演估算。

A Multiplatform Inversion Estimation of Statewide and Regional Methane Emissions in California during 2014-2016.

机构信息

California Air Resources Board , 1001 I Street , Sacramento , California 95814 , United States.

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering , Washington State University , Pullman , Washington 99163 , United States.

出版信息

Environ Sci Technol. 2019 Aug 20;53(16):9636-9645. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.9b01769. Epub 2019 Aug 2.

Abstract

California methane (CH) emissions are quantified for three years from two tower networks and one aircraft campaign. We used backward trajectory simulations and a mesoscale Bayesian inverse model, initialized by three inventories, to achieve the emission quantification. Results show total statewide CH emissions of 2.05 ± 0.26 (at 95% confidence) Tg/yr, which is 1.14 to 1.47 times greater than the anthropogenic emission estimates by California Air Resource Board (CARB). Some of differences could be biogenic emissions, superemitter point sources, and other episodic emissions which may not be completely included in the CARB inventory. San Joaquin Valley (SJV) has the largest CH emissions (0.94 ± 0.18 Tg/yr), followed by the South Coast Air Basin, the Sacramento Valley, and the San Francisco Bay Area at 0.39 ± 0.18, 0.21 ± 0.04, and 0.16 ± 0.05 Tg/yr, respectively. The dairy and oil/gas production sources in the SJV contribute 0.44 ± 0.36 and 0.22 ± 0.23 Tg CH/yr, respectively. This study has important policy implications for regulatory programs, as it provides a thorough multiyear evaluation of the emissions inventory using independent atmospheric measurements and investigates the utility of a complementary multiplatform approach in understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of CH emissions in the state and identifies opportunities for the expansion and applications of the monitoring network.

摘要

我们使用后向轨迹模拟和一个中尺度贝叶斯反演模型,由三个清单初始化,对三年的加利福尼亚甲烷 (CH) 排放进行了量化。结果表明,全州范围内的 CH 总排放量为 2.05 ± 0.26(置信度为 95%)Tg/yr,是加利福尼亚空气资源委员会(CARB)人为排放估计值的 1.14 至 1.47 倍。一些差异可能是生物源排放、超级排放点源和其他可能不完全包含在 CARB 清单中的偶发性排放。圣华金河谷(SJV)的 CH 排放量最大(0.94 ± 0.18 Tg/yr),其次是南海岸大气流域、萨克拉门托山谷和旧金山湾区,分别为 0.39 ± 0.18、0.21 ± 0.04 和 0.16 ± 0.05 Tg/yr。SJV 的奶牛场和石油/天然气生产源分别贡献了 0.44 ± 0.36 和 0.22 ± 0.23 Tg CH/yr。这项研究对监管计划具有重要的政策意义,因为它使用独立的大气测量对排放清单进行了全面的多年评估,并研究了互补多平台方法在了解该州 CH 排放的时空模式方面的效用,并确定了监测网络扩展和应用的机会。

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