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法国和德国核设施附近与性别相关的出生的次要性别比例和趋势:出生人数的更新。

Secondary sex ratio and trends in the associated gender-specific births near nuclear facilities in France and Germany: Update of birth counts.

机构信息

Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany.

Bremen, Germany.

出版信息

Reprod Toxicol. 2019 Oct;89:159-167. doi: 10.1016/j.reprotox.2019.07.021. Epub 2019 Jul 25.

Abstract

Increases in childhood cancer near nuclear facilities in France and in Germany as well as elevated human birth sex ratios after the atmospheric atomic bomb tests and after Chernobyl motivated the inspection of the secondary sex ratio and the corresponding gender-specific birth counts in the vicinity of nuclear facilities. Focus is on which changes in the birth counts go along with significant changes in the sex ratios. Official municipality-specific annual birth counts by sex for all of France and for whole Germany are updated until 2016 and 2017, respectively. Using logistic regression, we determine significant change-points (jumps) after distinct radiological events in sex ratio time-trends in circular areas around pertinent nuclear facilities. With Poisson regression, we quantify the corresponding change-points in the trends of absolute annual birth counts for boys and girls. In the 35-km vicinity of the 'Centre de l'Aube Nuclear Disposal Facility (CSA)' in France in the year 2000, we observe a jump in the sex odds (SO) with sex odds ratio (SOR) 1.101; 95% CI: (1.033, 1.175), p-value 0.0033. This jump in the sex odds can be associated with a drop in boys of 3.44% (-4.02, 10.37), p-value 0.3561, and a drop in girls of 8.44% (1.33, 15.04), p-value 0.0208. In the highly populated area around the nuclear power plant Philippsburg in Germany from 2001 onward, we see a similar effect: SOR 1.027 (1.008, 1.046), p-value 0.0045; drop in boys 5.56% (2.24, 8.76), p-value 0.0012; drop in girls 6.92% (3.62, 10.10), p-value <0.0001. The presented findings corroborate and specify earlier observations and call for intensifying bio-physical research in exposure mechanisms and exposure pathways of natural or artificial ionizing radiation including neutron radiation and neutron activation. Reinforced biological and epidemiological research should aim at clarifying the associated genetic and carcinogenic consequences at the population level.

摘要

在法国和德国的核设施附近,儿童癌症发病率上升,以及大气原子弹试验和切尔诺贝利事故后人类出生性别比例升高,这促使人们检查核设施附近的次要性别比例和相应的性别特定出生人数。重点是哪些出生人数的变化与性别比例的显著变化有关。截至 2016 年和 2017 年,法国和德国的所有官方市特定年度出生人数按性别进行了更新。我们使用逻辑回归确定了在核设施周围相关圆形区域内性别比例时间趋势中的放射性事件后显著的变化点(跳跃)。使用泊松回归,我们量化了男孩和女孩绝对年度出生人数趋势中的相应变化点。在法国奥布中心核处置设施(CSA)的 35 公里范围内,我们观察到 2000 年性别优势(SO)的跳跃,性别优势比(SOR)为 1.101;95%CI:(1.033,1.175),p 值为 0.0033。这种性别优势的跳跃可以与男孩下降 3.44%(-4.02,10.37)相关联,p 值为 0.3561,女孩下降 8.44%(1.33,15.04),p 值为 0.0208。在德国人口稠密的菲利普斯堡核电站周围地区,从 2001 年开始,我们看到了类似的影响:SOR 1.027(1.008,1.046),p 值为 0.0045;男孩下降 5.56%(2.24,8.76),p 值为 0.0012;女孩下降 6.92%(3.62,10.10),p 值 <0.0001。所提出的发现证实并具体说明了早期的观察结果,并呼吁加强对自然或人工电离辐射(包括中子辐射和中子激活)暴露机制和暴露途径的生物物理研究。加强生物和流行病学研究应旨在阐明人群水平相关的遗传和致癌后果。

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