Grech Victor
Department of Paediatrics, Mater Dei Hospital, Msida, Malta.
Int J Risk Saf Med. 2014;26(1):45-53. doi: 10.3233/JRS-140607.
The Windscale (UK) fire of 1957 carried radioactive fallout according to the then prevailing wind patterns, in a North-Easterly direction across the Nordic countries, toward Norway. The male:female ratio at birth (M/F) is known to be increased after parental exposure to ionising radiation due to foetal losses that affect female more than male pregnancies. This study was carried out in order to ascertain whether the Windscale fire had any effects on M/F and birth rates in the United Kingdom and Scandinavia.
Annual live births by gender were obtained from a World Health Organization dataset. The null hypothesis was that there were no significant changes in M/F or in births in temporal association with the 1957 Windscale event in abovementioned countries.
There were no significant effects on the UK and most of Scandinavia but there was a significant rise in M/F for Norway and Finland with an aggregate deficit of around 4000 births in each country.
A recent study suggests that the plume from the reactor extended further east than previously believed. This study confirms that contamination from the Windscale fire had a negligible impact on the UK (as measured by birth effects) but had a significant impact on births in Norway and Sweden.
1957年英国温斯凯尔核事故所产生的放射性沉降物，按照当时盛行的风向模式，向东北方向越过北欧国家，飘向挪威。已知父母遭受电离辐射后，由于胎儿损失对女性怀孕的影响大于男性，出生时的男女比例（M/F）会升高。开展这项研究是为了确定温斯凯尔核事故是否对英国和斯堪的纳维亚地区的男女出生比例及出生率产生了影响。
按性别划分的年度活产数据来自世界卫生组织的数据集。原假设是上述国家中，男女出生比例或出生情况与1957年温斯凯尔事件在时间上没有显著变化。
对英国和斯堪的纳维亚大部分地区没有显著影响，但挪威和芬兰的男女出生比例显著上升，每个国家的出生总数减少了约4000例。
最近一项研究表明，反应堆产生的烟羽向东延伸的距离比之前认为的更远。本研究证实，温斯凯尔核事故的污染对英国（以出生影响衡量）的影响可忽略不计，但对挪威和瑞典的出生情况有显著影响。
