Department of Epidemiology,Seoul National University School of Public Health,Seoul,Republic of Korea.
Division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases,The Warren Alpert Medical School of Brown University,Providence, RI,USA.
Epidemiol Infect. 2019 Jan;147:e245. doi: 10.1017/S0950268819001389.
In the Republic of Korea, despite the introduction of one-dose universal varicella vaccination in 2005 and achieving a high coverage rate of 98.9% in 2012, the incidence rate has been increased sevenfold. This study aimed to investigate time trends of varicella incidence rate, assessing the age, period and birth cohort effects. We used national data on the annual number of reported cases from 2006 to 2017. A log-linear Poisson regression model was used to estimate age-period-cohort effects on varicella incidence rate. From 2006 to 2017, the incidence of varicella increased from 22.5 cases to more than 154.8 cases per 100 000. Peak incidence has shifted from 4 to 6 years old. The estimated period and cohort effects showed significant upward patterns, with a linear increasing trend by net drift. There has been an increase in the incidence among the Korean population regarding period and cohort despite the universal vaccination of varicella vaccine. Our data suggest the need for additional studies to address the current gap in herd immunity.
在韩国，尽管 2005 年引入了一剂通用水痘疫苗接种，并在 2012 年达到了 98.9%的高覆盖率，但发病率还是增加了七倍。本研究旨在调查水痘发病率的时间趋势，评估年龄、时期和出生队列效应。我们使用了 2006 年至 2017 年全国报告病例的年度数据。对数线性泊松回归模型用于估计水痘发病率的年龄-时期-队列效应。2006 年至 2017 年，水痘发病率从每 10 万人 22.5 例增加到 154.8 例以上。发病高峰已从 4 岁转移到 6 岁。估计的时期和队列效应显示出显著的上升模式，通过净漂移呈线性增加趋势。尽管普遍接种了水痘疫苗，但韩国人口的发病率仍呈上升趋势。我们的数据表明，需要进一步研究来解决当前群体免疫方面的差距。
