School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China; Key Laboratory of Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
Key Laboratory of Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; State Key Laboratory of Water Resources & Hydropower Engineering Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430000, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Nov 25;693:133555. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.361. Epub 2019 Jul 23.
Drought is an extremely widespread and common natural disaster that significantly impacts both the socio-economic activities of a community and the natural environment. A comprehensive and accurate understanding of hydrological drought is important for the drought prediction and risk management. In this study, a discussion of the characteristics of the historical and future hydrological drought in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) is presented. The research was conducted by modeling the relationship between the ecological water supply and the irrigation water supply using the Community Land Model-Distributed Time Variant Gain Model (CLM-DTVGM) and a copula function. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the Pearson-III probability distribution is the optimal marginal probability distribution for calculating the historical and future runoff from the mountainous region and the Alaer hydrological station; (2) the AMH is the optimal copula function for calculating the joint probability for joint between the ecological and irrigation flows, while the Arch 12, from Bayesian theory, is the optimal copula function under future scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5); and (3) the probability and recurrence period are 0.25 and 4 years, respectively, for the historical hydrological drought, when a multi-year runoff average is used as the threshold. In comparison, the probabilities for the future hydrological drought under the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios are 0.23, 0.15, and 0.18, respectively, which are related to the recurrence periods of 4.3, 7, and 5.6 years, respectively. These results can be used to significantly improve water saving awareness and drought prediction ability in the TRB.
干旱是一种极其广泛和常见的自然灾害，对社区的社会经济活动和自然环境都有重大影响。全面准确地了解水文干旱对于干旱预测和风险管理至关重要。本研究讨论了塔里木河流域（TRB）历史和未来水文干旱的特征。研究采用 CLM-DTVGM 和 copula 函数模型，建立生态需水与灌溉需水的关系，对研究区进行建模。结论如下：（1）Pearson-III 概率分布是计算山区和阿拉尔水文站历史和未来径流量的最优边际概率分布；（2）AMH 是计算生态和灌溉流联合的最优 copula 函数，而贝叶斯理论的 Arch 12 是未来情景（即 RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5 和 RCP 8.5）下的最优 copula 函数；（3）当多年平均径流量作为阈值时，历史水文干旱的概率和重现期分别为 0.25 和 4 年。相比之下，RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5 和 RCP 8.5 情景下未来水文干旱的概率分别为 0.23、0.15 和 0.18，重现期分别为 4.3、7 和 5.6 年。这些结果可用于显著提高 TRB 的节水意识和干旱预测能力。
