Effects of climate change and episodic heat events on cyanobacteria in a eutrophic polymictic lake.

Mixing regime and CO availability may control cyanobacterial blooms in polymictic lakes, but the underlying mechanisms still remain unclear. We integrated detailed results from a natural experiment comprising an average-wet year (2011) and one with heat waves (2012), a long-term meteorological dataset (1960-2010), historical phosphorus concentrations and sedimentary pigment records, to determine the mechanistic controls of cyanobacterial blooms in a eutrophic polymictic lake. Intense warming in 2012 was associated with: 1) increased stability of the water column with buoyancy frequencies exceeding 40 cph at the surface, 2) high phytoplankton biomass in spring (up to 125 mg WW L), 3) reduced downward transport of heat and 4) depleted epilimnetic CO concentrations. CO depletion was maintained by intense uptake by phytoplankton (influx up to 30 mmol m d) in combination with reduced, internal and external, carbon inputs during dry, stratified periods. These synergistic effects triggered bloom of buoyant cyanobacteria (up to 300 mg WW L) in the hot year. Complementary evidence from polynomial regression modelling using historical data and pigment record revealed that warming explains 78% of the observed trends in cyanobacterial biomass, whereas historical phosphorus concentration only 10% thereof. Together the results from the natural experiment and the long-term record indicate that effects of hotter and drier climate are likely to increase water column stratification and decrease CO availability in eutrophic polymictic lakes. This combination will catalyze blooms of buoyant cyanobacteria.