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使用自回归积分滑动平均模型(ARIMA)预测伊朗2016 - 2020年的医疗支出。

Forecasting health expenditures in Iran using the ARIMA model (2016-2020).

作者信息

Ramezanian Maryam, Haghdoost Ali Akbar, Mehrolhassani Mohammad Hossein, Abolhallaje Masoud, Dehnavieh Reza, Najafi Behzad, Fazaeli Ali Akbar

机构信息

Research Center for Health Services Management, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.

Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Future Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.

出版信息

Med J Islam Repub Iran. 2019 Apr 1;33:25. doi: 10.34171/mjiri.33.25. eCollection 2019.

Abstract

Accurate economic forecast has important effects on governmental policy and economic planning, and it can help policymakers to make decisions for future and create new infrastructures for the development of new forecasting methods. This study calculated total health expenditure, public health expenditure and out of pocket (OOP) payment for 2016-2020. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Process (ARIMA) is one of the most important forecasting models. In this study, five-year values were forecasted using EViews8 software according to health expenditures in Iran from 1971 to 2015. Applying annual data for total health expenditure, resulted in the ARIMA (1,1,1) model being the most appropriate to predict these costs. The results of this study indicate that total health expenditures will reach from about 1228338 billion IRR in 2016 to 2698346 billion IRR in 2020 and the amount of out of pocket (OOP) will become more than 41% of total health expenditure in 2020. Total health expenditures in 2020 will become more than two halves in 2016. These expenditures indicated there is a need for continued governmental support of this sector during the upcoming years.

摘要

准确的经济预测对政府政策和经济规划具有重要影响,它可以帮助政策制定者为未来做出决策,并为新预测方法的发展创建新的基础设施。本研究计算了2016 - 2020年的卫生总支出、公共卫生支出和自付费用。自回归积分移动平均模型(ARIMA)是最重要的预测模型之一。在本研究中,根据1971年至2015年伊朗的卫生支出,使用EViews8软件预测了五年的值。应用卫生总支出的年度数据,得出ARIMA(1,1,1)模型最适合预测这些成本。本研究结果表明,卫生总支出将从2016年的约12283380亿伊朗里亚尔增至2020年的26983460亿伊朗里亚尔,且2020年自付费用将超过卫生总支出的41%。2020年的卫生总支出将比2016年增加一倍多。这些支出表明在未来几年需要政府继续支持该部门。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9656/6662543/f8151a0ad4bb/mjiri-33-25-g001.jpg

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