Postgraduate Program in Environmental Science-PPGCA, Institute of Geosciences, Meteorology Faculty, Federal University of Pará-UFPA, Belém, Pará, Brazil.
Postgraduate Program in Ecology and Conservation, State University of Mato Grosso, Nova Xavantina, Mato Grosso, Brazil.
PLoS One. 2023 Jun 22;18(6):e0286457. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0286457. eCollection 2023.
Changes in species distribution in response to climate change might challenge the territorial boundaries of protected areas. Amazonia is one of the global regions most at risk of developing long distances between current and future analogous climates and the emergence of climate conditions without analogs in the past. As a result, species present within the network of Protected Areas (PAs) of Amazonia may be threatened throughout the 21st century. In this study, we investigated climate velocity based on future and past climate-analogs using forward and backward directions in the network of PAs of Amazonia, in order to assess the climatic risk of these areas to climate change and verify their effectiveness in maintaining the current climate conditions. Using current (1970-2000) and future (2041-2060) average annual air temperature and precipitation data with a resolution of 10 km, climate velocities across the entire Amazon biome and average climate velocities of PAs and Indigenous Lands (ILs) were evaluated. The results show that the effects of backward velocity will be greater than that of forward velocity in the Amazon biome. However, the PA network will be less exposed to backward velocity impacts than unprotected areas (UAs)-emphasizing the importance of these areas as a conservation tool. In contrast, for the forward velocity impacts, the PA network will be slightly more exposed than UAs-indicating that the current spatial arrangement of the PA network is still not the most suitable to minimize impacts of a possible climate redistribution. In addition, a large extent of no-analog climates for backward velocities was found in central Amazonia, indicating that high temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns in this region will surpass the historical variability of the entire biome, making it a potentially isolated and unsuitable climatic envelope for species in the future. Most of the no-analog climates are in PAs, however the climate risks in ILs should also be highlighted since they presented higher climate velocities than PAs in both metrics. Our projections contrast with the median latitudinal migration rate of 2 km/year observed in most ecosystems and taxonomic groups studied so far and suggest the need for median migration rates of 7.6 km/year. Thus, despite the important role of PAs and ILs as conservation tools, they are not immune to the effects of climate change and new management strategies, specific to each area and that allow adaptation to global changes, will be necessary.
由于气候变化，物种分布的变化可能会挑战保护区的地域边界。亚马逊地区是全球最容易受到影响的地区之一，因为该地区现在和未来的类似气候之间的距离将会拉得很长，并且过去没有类似的气候条件出现。因此，在亚马逊地区保护网络内的物种可能会在整个 21 世纪受到威胁。在这项研究中，我们根据未来和过去的气候类似物，利用亚马逊地区保护网络的前进和后退方向，调查了气候速度，以评估这些地区对气候变化的气候风险，并验证它们在维持当前气候条件方面的有效性。我们使用分辨率为 10 公里的当前（1970-2000 年）和未来（2041-2060 年）平均年空气温度和降水数据，评估了整个亚马逊生物群落以及保护地和原住民土地的平均气候速度。结果表明，在亚马逊生物群落中，后退速度的影响将大于前进速度的影响。然而，与未受保护地区（UAs）相比，保护地网络受到后退速度影响的程度较小，这强调了这些地区作为保护工具的重要性。相比之下，对于前进速度的影响，保护地网络比 UAs 稍微更容易受到影响，这表明当前保护地网络的空间布局仍不是最适合将可能的气候再分配影响降到最低的布局。此外，我们发现后退速度的无类似气候在亚马逊中心地区的范围很大，这表明该地区的高温和降水模式的变化将超过整个生物群落的历史变异性，使该地区成为未来物种的潜在孤立和不适宜的气候环境。大部分无类似气候都在保护地中，然而，原住民土地的气候风险也应该引起重视，因为它们在这两个指标上的气候速度都高于保护地。我们的预测与迄今为止在大多数生态系统和分类群中观察到的 2 公里/年的中纬度迁移率中位数形成对比，这表明需要 7.6 公里/年的中纬度迁移率中位数。因此，尽管保护地和原住民土地作为保护工具发挥着重要作用，但它们也不能免受气候变化的影响，需要制定针对每个地区的新的管理策略，以适应全球变化。
