bees@wur, Wageningen Plant Research, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Institute of Bee Health, Vetsuisse Faculty, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Glob Chang Biol. 2019 Nov;25(11):3642-3655. doi: 10.1111/gcb.14791. Epub 2019 Sep 11.
Climate change and biological invasions are two major global environmental challenges. Both may interact, e.g. via altered impact and distribution of invasive alien species. Even though invasive species play a key role for compromising the health of honey bees, the impact of climate change on the severity of such species is still unknown. The small hive beetle (SHB, Aethina tumida, Murray) is a parasite of honey bee colonies. It is endemic to sub-Saharan Africa and has established populations on all continents except Antarctica. Since SHBs pupate in soil, pupation performance is governed foremost by two abiotic factors, soil temperature and moisture, which will be affected by climate change. Here, we investigated SHB invasion risk globally under current and future climate scenarios. We modelled survival and development time during pupation (=pupal performance) in response to soil temperature and soil moisture using published and novel experimental data. Presence data on SHB distribution were used for model validation. We then linked the model with global soil data in order to classify areas (resolution: 10 arcmin; i.e. 18.6 km at the equator) as unsuitable, marginal and suitable for SHB pupation performance. Under the current climate, the results show that many areas globally yet uninvaded are actually suitable, suggesting considerable SHB invasion risk. Future scenarios of global warming project a vehement increase in climatic suitability for SHB and corresponding potential for invasion, especially in the temperate regions of the Northern hemisphere, thereby creating demand for enhanced and adapted mitigation and management. Our analysis shows, for the first time, effects of global warming on a honey bee pest and will help areas at risk to prepare adequately. In conclusion, this is a clear case for global warming promoting biological invasion of a pest species with severe potential to harm important pollinator species globally.
气候变化和生物入侵是两个主要的全球环境挑战。这两者可能会相互作用，例如通过改变入侵外来物种的影响和分布。尽管入侵物种在危害蜜蜂健康方面起着关键作用，但气候变化对这些物种严重程度的影响仍不清楚。小黄蜂（SHB，Aethina tumida，Murray）是蜜蜂群体的寄生虫。它是撒哈拉以南非洲的特有物种，除南极洲外，已在各大洲建立了种群。由于小黄蜂在土壤中化蛹，化蛹表现主要受两个非生物因素的控制，即土壤温度和湿度，这将受到气候变化的影响。在这里，我们根据当前和未来的气候情景，研究了全球范围内小黄蜂的入侵风险。我们使用已发表和新的实验数据，通过模型模拟了蛹期（=蛹期表现）的存活率和发育时间对土壤温度和土壤湿度的反应。小黄蜂分布的存在数据用于模型验证。然后，我们将该模型与全球土壤数据相链接，以便将区域（分辨率：10 弧分；即赤道处 18.6 公里）划分为不适合、边缘和适合小黄蜂蛹期表现的区域。在当前气候下，结果表明，全球许多尚未被入侵的地区实际上是适宜的，这表明小黄蜂存在相当大的入侵风险。全球变暖的未来情景预测，SHB 的气候适宜性将急剧增加，相应的入侵潜力也将增加，特别是在北半球的温带地区，因此需要加强和调整缓解和管理措施。我们的分析首次表明了全球变暖对蜜蜂害虫的影响，并将帮助处于风险中的地区做好充分准备。总之，这是一个明显的例子，表明全球变暖促进了一种具有严重危害全球重要传粉媒介物种潜力的害虫的生物入侵。
