Matsukura Keiichiro, Mizutani Nobuo, Tanaka Sayumi, Tanaka Yoshiaki
Institute for Plant Protection, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization (NARO), Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan.
Division of Crop Pest Control Research, Institute for Plant Protection, NARO, Kannondai 2-1- 18, Tsukuba, 305-8666, Ibaraki, Japan.
Sci Rep. 2024 Dec 28;14(1):31333. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-82713-z.
Recent changes in climate and environments have promoted the range expansion of insect pests of tropical and subtropical origins into temperate regions. For more accurate and faster risk assessment of this expansion, we developed a novel indicator to link a physiologically derived parameter of chilling injury with the survival of insect populations in nature by using two insects, Spodoptera frugiperda and Cicadulina bipunctata with tropical and subtropical origins, and one cool-adapted insect, Laodelphax striatellus. The parameter derived from a proportional increment in the time to 99.9% mortality under constant low temperatures causing chilling injury evaluates the survival of target insect populations based on winter climate data. For S. frugiperda and C. bipunctata, but not for L. striatellus, the accuracy of the model in predicting the overwintering range was equivalent to, or better than, those of a conventional species distribution model. Additional field testing using S. frugiperda and comparison of the developed model with a conventional logistic model for C. bipunctata supported the validity of the indicator. These results suggest that the developed indicator will help for simple risk assessment of tropical and subtropical insect pests in temperate regions by the species distribution modelling approach.
近期气候和环境的变化促使源自热带和亚热带的害虫向温带地区扩散。为了对这种扩散进行更准确、快速的风险评估，我们开发了一种新指标，通过使用两种源自热带和亚热带的昆虫——草地贪夜蛾和双斑蜡蝉，以及一种适应凉爽环境的昆虫——灰飞虱，将低温伤害的生理参数与昆虫种群在自然环境中的存活率联系起来。该参数源自恒定低温导致低温伤害时，达到99.9%死亡率所需时间的比例增量，它基于冬季气候数据评估目标昆虫种群的存活率。对于草地贪夜蛾和双斑蜡蝉而言，该模型预测越冬范围的准确性等同于或优于传统物种分布模型，但对于灰飞虱则不然。使用草地贪夜蛾进行的额外田间试验以及将所开发模型与双斑蜡蝉的传统逻辑模型进行比较，均支持了该指标的有效性。这些结果表明，所开发的指标将有助于通过物种分布建模方法对温带地区的热带和亚热带害虫进行简单的风险评估。
