Guangdong Polytechnic Normal University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2019 Oct;26(29):29722-29735. doi: 10.1007/s11356-019-06119-5. Epub 2019 Aug 12.
In order to achieve a sustainable development of economy and ecological environment, starting from the systemic thinking and systemic approach, this paper regards China's economic development and ecological environment protection as a whole system. Firstly, the negative index of M2 is introduced to correct the GDP bubble, and constructed the architecture model of the economy-ecological environment system. Then, this research establishes an evaluation index system using the analytic hierarchy process and Yaahp software and obtains its comprehensive evaluation value. After that, this research builds the Lotka-Volterra coordination degree model and uses the China data from 1997-2016 to analyze the mutual influencing factors and coupling coordination degree, and carries out the empirical and experimental tests to obtain the overall coordination relationship between economy and ecological environment systems. The results of the study show that the trend of economy-ecological environment coordination degree in China has changed from relatively coordinated to moderately uncoordinated in the latter 20 years; the coordination degree decreased from 0.8996 to 0.4842. Although, the situation has a rebound in the latter 2 years, the situation is still not optimistic. In addition, even the modified model of economic subsystem plus M2 did not change the original changing trend, and only changed the magnitude of the gap, thus revealing that the imbalance of economic development is much more serious than the impact of overissue currency on the ecological environment. This study provides a new basis for research decisions such as the adjustment of the economic growth rate and the optimization of ecological environment.
为了实现经济和生态环境的可持续发展，本文从系统思维和系统方法出发，将中国的经济发展和生态环境保护视为一个整体系统。首先，引入 M2 的负指数来修正 GDP 泡沫，并构建经济-生态环境系统的架构模型。然后，本研究利用层次分析法和 Yaahp 软件建立了评价指标体系，并获得其综合评价值。之后，建立了 Lotka-Volterra 协调度模型，并利用中国 1997-2016 年的数据进行了相互影响因素和耦合协调度的分析，并进行了实证和实验测试，以获得经济和生态环境系统之间的总体协调关系。研究结果表明，中国经济-生态环境协调度的趋势在过去 20 年中已经从相对协调转变为中度不协调；协调度从 0.8996 下降到 0.4842。尽管在最近两年有所反弹，但情况仍不容乐观。此外，即使对经济子系统加 M2 的修正模型也没有改变原有的变化趋势，只是改变了差距的大小，从而揭示了经济发展的不平衡比货币超发对生态环境的影响更为严重。本研究为调整经济增长率和优化生态环境等决策提供了新的依据。
